The looming arrest of Duterte and the 2025 elections

The main character and three of the supporting cast in the ICC trial of Duterte’s deadly war on drugs.

The looming issuance of arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for former president Rodrigo Duterte and his accomplices in his deadly war on drugs is expected to impact tremendously in the 2025 midterm and the 2028 presidential elections.
Former senator Antonio Trillanes IV, who was the first to bring Duterte’s crimes to the ICC way back in 2017, said the warrants of arrest could be served later this month or early July.

He said, according to his sources privy to the workings of the ICC, the serving of the arrest warrants will be done by batch. The former president will be the first one to be served.

The second batch would most likely include Vice President Sara Duterte and Sens. Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go.

The third batch would likely be the police officials who led in the implementation of Duterte’s war on drugs that claimed the lives of some 30,000. (Government figures put those who were killed during police operations at 6,000.)

There were rumors last year about a possible cooperation of former PNP chief Oscar Albayalde with the ICC, but it turned out to be false.

Duterte and those involved in the war on drugs are subject of an investigation for crimes against humanity in the Philippines covering the period from Nov. 1, 2011 (when he was Davao City mayor) to March 16, 2019 (when the Philippines withdrew from the ICC).

Trillanes said the ICC investigators have completed their collection of evidence and are now set to issue warrants of arrest to ensure the participation of the accused in the trial.

Duterte has said several times that he will not submit to the ICC’s jurisdiction, ignorantly describing the international court as composed of “white people.”

His strategy for evading the inevitable serving of an arrest warrant has become pathetic, even laughable. In the beginning, he tried to be useful to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., with his loyalists Bong Go and Sen. Alan Cayetano suggesting that he be appointed special envoy to China, given his closeness to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

When that didn’t work, he resorted to putting pressure on Marcos using the objectionable Charter change issue. The public knows better. Charter change is a legitimate issue but Duterte, having advocated that previously, is not a credible rallying figure. This is best shown by the dwindling attendance in his rallies. Also, the prospect of having Sara Duterte — with her unexplained P125 million confidential fund and dismal performance as Education secretary — as president if Marcos is toppled before 2028 scares concerned citizens.

Dela Rosa is doing his own thing with his senseless investigation of the leak by the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency of the president’s alleged drug use as exposed by Duterte.

In what is seen by many as a distraction to Duterte’s accountability in the bloody drug war, his son, Paolo, who is Davao City representative, has filed a resolution seeking a congressional investigation into the alleged extrajudicial killings in the country for the last 25 years.

Marcos has, so far, dangled the ICC sword, effectively confusing not only Duterte and his allies but also the public. The question on everybody’s mind: Will Marcos allow the arrest of Duterte and his accomplices by the ICC?

Trillanes said that scenario might not happen because he believes Duterte will flee to China for sanctuary. Remember, in August last year Duterte met with Xi in Beijing when he thought a warrant of arrest would be issued with the decision of the ICC to reject the Philippine government’s appeal to stop the investigation.

How about Sara? And Dela Rosa and Go, who are due for reelection in the 2025 elections?

Will the arrest, if it happens, gain them sympathy or lead to their political oblivion?

Abangan.

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Why China blocks bringing of construction supplies to BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal

When former president Rodrigo Duterte agreed with Chinese President Xi Jin Ping to not repair the BRP Sierra Madre, he was, in fact, abandoning the Marines valiantly manning the rusting ship, which has become a heroic symbol of the Philippine’s resistance against the creeping invasion by China.

In an interview on ABS-CBN after another water-cannoning of the rotation and reprovisioning (RORE) vessel bound for Ayungin Shoal on March 23, Harry Roque, former spokesperson of Duterte, disclosed that the former president and Xi had “a gentleman’s agreement.”

“Ito’y oral [agreement] sa panahon ni [dating] presidente Duterte na ang parehong panig, ang Tsina’t Pilipinas, ay rerespetuhin ang status quo; ibig sabihin, kung ano ‘yung naroroon na, walang dagdag, walang bawas,” Roque said.

(It was an oral agreement during the time of [former] president Duterte in which both sides, China and the Philippines, will respect the status quo; which means, what is there, nothing will be added, nothing will be subtracted.)

Roque said he learned about the agreement in 2018, when Duterte called China’s ambassador to Malacañang after a Chinese ship sprayed water cannon on a RORE vessel bound for Ayungin Shoal. The envoy claimed that “papayagan nilang dalhan ng tubig at pagkain, hindi ang pagpapadala ng materyales for repair ng BRP Sierra Madre.”

(They will agree to the bringing of water and food, but not materials for the repair of BRP Sierra Madre.)
This is underscored in the statements of the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespersons to justify the Chinese blocking of RORE vessels: “This Philippine resupply mission is not to send necessities, but to bring construction materials to the military vessel illegally grounded at Ren’ai Jiao for its repair and reinforcement in an attempt to build a permanent outpost on China’s uninhabited reef so as to permanently and illegally occupy Ren’ai Jiao.“

Why is China violently opposing the repair of BRP Sierra Madre?

Ayungin Shoal (international name is Second Thomas Shoal; Chinese name, Rén’ài Jiāo ) is a low- tide elevation (meaning, it’s underwater during high tide) in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. It is 105 nautical miles from Palawan and is part of the country’s exclusive economic zone and continental shelf. China claims it belongs to Nansha Qundao or Spratlys, which is part of its territory based on its discredited nine-dash line map.

Ayungin Shoal is doubly important to China because it is 21 nautical miles from Mischief Reef (Philippine name, Panganiban Reef; Chinese name, Meiji Jiao), which China occupied in 1995 during the presidency of the late Fidel Ramos and has since developed a military base there complete with an airport.

In retaliation, the Philippine Navy, under the Estrada administration, intentionally grounded he BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal.
Built in 1944, the 100-meter long BRP Sierra Madre was originally a World War II vintage US Landing Ship Tank (LSTs). It saw action during the Vietnam War as USS Harnett County. In 1976, it was transferred to the Philippine Navy.

Despite its dilapidated state, BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal is a constant source of annoyance to China. Countless times, Chinese officials have told the Philippines to remove it. They would have done so themselves if not for potential politically serious consequences.

BRP Sierra Madre is Philippine territory

BRP Sierra Madre is “a commissioned Philippine naval vessel.” A country’s naval ship is considered part of its territory.
If China touches or steps on any part of BRP Sierra Madre, it would be an act of war. It has to reckon with the 1951 PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty which states in part, “Each party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes. “
The treaty also says, “… an armed attack on either of the parties is deemed to include an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the parties, or on the island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during a visit to Manila on March 20, reiterated the current U.S. assurance that its “iron-clad” commitment under the MDT “extends to armed attacks on the Filipino armed forces, public vessels, aircraft – including those of its coast guard – anywhere in the South China Sea.”

Nobody wants an armed clash between China and the United States in the South China Sea. That would be a catastrophe. Not even China, despite its strong warning that “if the Philippines does not change course, China will continue to take resolute steps to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

Hoping and waiting for the worst for BRP Sierra Madre

What China wants is for BRP Sierra Madre to decay fast and become uninhabitable. The eight Marines stationed there would be forced to abandon it. That would pave the way for China to occupy Ayungin Shoal, which is just 105 nautical miles west of Palawan.

Duterte’s agreement with China to not bring construction materials for the repair of BRP Sierra Madre supports China’s desired scenario. That was surrender.

In effect, Duterte abandoned the patriotic and courageous Marines to the mercy of China. That was abandonment of his sworn duty to protect and serve the people. It’s treason.

This column also appeared in Malaya Business Insight, VERA Files