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Aquino satisfaction rating plunge: The calm before the storm

August 13, 2014August 13, 2014 Ellen Leave a comment

Take note that the Social Weather Stations survey showing a 16- point plunge in net satisfaction for the Aquino administration was conducted on June 27 – 30, 2014.

From 45 percent last March, satisfaction for general performance of the Aquino administration dropped to 29 percent in the June survey.

This was before the July 1 Supreme Court unanimous decision declaring the Disbursement Acceleration Program or DAP unconstitutional.

This was before Aquino went ballistic against the Supreme Court insisting on his own interpretation of the Constitution deliberately ignoring that under our system of government the final arbiter when it comes to legal issues is the Supreme Court.

This is the lowest score given by the people to the Aquino administration which rode high with 64 percent satisfaction rating on its first year despite its embarrassing bungling of the Rizal Park hostage crisis in August 2010.

Even with its maddening incompetence in the typhoon Yolanda tragedy in November last year, the public maintained its kind regard of President Aquino.

The decline actually started third quarter of 2013. In the June 2013 SWS survey, the Aquino administration got its highest satisfaction rating with 66 percent. From there, it was downwards with a ten-point drop three months after (Sept. 2013- 56 percent). But many were surprised that it was only a slight five-point drop ( 51 percent) in a post- Yolanda survey in December 2013.

Then came the controversy over the Priority Development Assistance Fund or PDAF which tainted the entire Philippine political spectrum. Malacañang, tried though to spin the issue to its favor with the arrest of opposition senators – Juan Ponce-Enrile, Jinggoy Estrada, and Bong Revilla.

The In the March 2014 survey , Satisfaction rating for the Aquino administration sank six points further below the 50 percent mark which observers said should alarm Malacañang.

As of last week of June 2014, it’s 29 percent.

Presidential Spokesperson Edwin Lacierda said they are not bothered by the steep decline saying it is “not insurmountable”. In Tagalog, may pag-asa pa.

Thinking of how it would affect the President’s influence in the 2016 elections, Lacierda, who earlier described Aquino’s endorsement power for 2016 as “lethal”, said it remains “undiminished.”

Let’s see in the next survey.

It is also worth noting that in the SWS June survey, the President got a “good” rating in “providing enough supply of electricity” at 45 percent. I dread how it would be next summer when the public would have to suffer eight to ten hours daily brownouts as warned by Energy Secretary Jericho Petilla.

Survey says House, Senate, SC trust ratings all below majority

August 4, 2014August 4, 2014 Ed Lingao Leave a comment

Supreme Court most trusted, more distrust for House and Senate

By Julius D. Mariveles

THE SUPREME COURT, the Senate, and the House of Representatives have all failed to score majority approval and trust ratings, according to the results of the latest “Ulat ng Bayan” of Pulse Asia Research, a creditable national pollster.

This is the unfortunate result of a nationwide survey on the performance and trust ratings of key government institutions that Pulse Asia conducted from June 24 to July 2, 2014, among a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above.

The Supreme Court got a 49 percent performance rating, or higher than the scores of the Senate and House of Representatives of 33 percent and 34 percent, respectively.

The High Court was also the most trusted, with a 42 percent approval rating. In contrast, the House of Representatives was the least trusted with 29 percent, while the Senate got 31 percent.

The nationwide survey, the results of which were released this August, had a margin of error of plus or minus three percent and a confidence level of 95 percent, Pulse Asia said in a news release.

It added that the subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas have a plus or minus six percent margin of error, also at 95 percent confidence level.

The same survey showed that disapproval and distrust are “more pronounced” for the House and the Senate.

In the disapproval ratings, the high court got 13 percent compared to the House’s 21 percent and the Senate’s 23 percent.

The Senate got the highest distrust level at 20 percent compared to the House’s 19 percent and the Supreme Court’s 10 percent (Please see Tables 1 to 2).

Pulse Asia also noted that while the assessment of the Supreme Court’s work and trustworthiness remained unchanged between two survey periods – March 14 and June 14 – the two chambers of Congress “experienced significant changes in their respective ratings – at the national level and across selected survey sub-groupings.”

Between March and June 2014, the Senate experienced a significant drop in its national approval score with minus eight percentage points and an increase in its overall disapproval rating of plus nine percentage points.

There was also a noted decline in the level of appreciation for the Senate’s work in Metro Manila by minus 14 percentage points, in Mindanao by minus 15 percentage points, and in Classes ABC and D by minus nine to minus 19 percentage points (Please see Table 3).

DECLINE IN THE FACE OF PDAF SCAM

Trust ratings in the Senate and the House of Representatives also dropped amidst the controversy over the Priority Development Assistance (PDAF) or pork barrel scam.

The Senate’s ratings dropped by minus 14 percentage points in the Visayas, minus 15 in Mindanao, minus 18 in Metro Manila, and minus 15 to 18 percentage points in Classes ABC and E. Meanwhile, the Lower House’s trust ratings dropped by minus 15 percentage points in Class E and minus 16 percentage points in Metro Manila.

Pulse Asia pointed out that fewer Filipinos expressed trust in the Senate and House of Representatives in June 2014 than six months ago while the distrust in the Supreme Court eased between December 2013 and June 2014 (Please see Table 4).

Among the issues according to Pulse Asia that “preoccupied” Filipinos before and during the conduct of the field interviews for the survey were the following:

The filing of charges of plunder and violation and anti-graft laws against some senators and the indictment of Janet Lim Napoles and some members of the legislative staffs of Senators Juan Ponce Enrile, Jinggoy Estrada, and Bong Revilla. The surrenders of Revilla and Estrada following the issuance of arrest warrants against them; and the “not guilty” pleas entered by the Sandiganbayan in their behalf;
The Office of the Ombudsman’s denial of the petition for immunity of Napoles and several other government officials;
The petition of the Office of the Ombudsman before the Sandiganbayan for the creation of two special courts to handle cases related to the pork barrel scam;
The decision issued by the Supreme Court declaring several acts under the Disbursement Acceleration Program as unconstitutional;
The statement of support for President Aquino made by House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte, Jr. and other pro-administration lawmakers in response to calls for the President’s impeachment and the resignation of Budget Sec. Florencio Abad coming from some opposition lawmakers and militant groups;
The creation by the Office of the Ombudsman of a panel that will investigate the realignments in the national budget made by the administration under the DAP;
The Sandiganbayan’s order to suspend former President and incumbent Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo for 90 days in connection with her alleged involvement in the NBN-ZTE deal;
The continued tension between the Philippines and China over the disputed territories in the West Philippine Sea;
The President’s call for the Philippine National Police to swiftly resolve crime incidents after the recent series of killings involving several high-profile individuals;
The confirmation of the appointments of Justice Sec. Leila De Lima, Social Welfare Sec. Corazon J. Soliman, and Environment Sec. Ramon J.P. Paje after being in office for four years;
The celebration of the 116^th Philippine Independence Day on June 12 with President Aquino leading the rites in Naga City;
The controversial decision of President Aquino to reject the nomination of Nora Aunor as National Artist for Film;
The continued failure of the Bureau of Internal Revenue and the Bureau of Customs to meet their collection targets for the month of May 2014;
The decline in power rates charged by the Manila Electric Company in June 2014;
The increase in oil prices due to the continued crisis in Iraq;
The hike in the prices of rice, garlic, and sugar reportedly due to lower supply levels; and
The DBM’s budget proposal totaling P2.06 trillion for the year 2015.

Aquino still in deep slumber despite wake up call

October 18, 2013October 18, 2013 Ellen Leave a comment

Thanks to Dennis Garcia .

Mahar Mangahas commented on this column in my FB wall:

“Ellen, the SWS report about the 2013Q2 rating of the ADMINISTRATION was NOT a recycled piece; it was simply the final release from the 2013Q2 SWS survey. It is different from the SWS report on the 2013Q2 rating of the PERSONAL PERFORMANCE OF PNoy, which was released much earlier. Our report last week on the 2013Q3 personal rating of Pnoy was the first of a series from the third quarter survey; more will follow in due course, including the rating of the Administration (not the person) again. http://www.sws.org.ph/pr20130923.htm

“Ellen, here is the earlier SWS report about the 2nd quarter rating of PNoy, that you claimed was “recycled.” SWS does not do recycling; publicity is not our occupation.
http://www.sws.org.ph/pr20130729.htm”

Now we know why the three-month old survey of the Social Weather Station showing a high public satisfaction for the Aquino administration was recycled last Sept. 19.

At the height of the pork barrel/Janet Napoles scandal and the bungling of the Zamboanga conflict involving the Nur Misuari’s Moro National Liberation Front, the SWS survey conducted June 28-30 and was reported about in July was released again and was carried by major media outlets.

The lead of the story was the highest satisfaction rating (three out of four Filipinos) for the Aquino administration. Startling lead given the unfavorable headlines daily for more than a month.

Only when the reader read closely would he have known that the survey was conducted three months earlier when Napoles, PDAF and DAP were not in the national consciousness and Misuari’s men had not yet marched into Zamboanga.

Was that done to influence the respondents of the survey that was to be conducted by SWS on Sept 20 through 23?

The major media outlets were had. But as Abraham Lincoln said, “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

The result of the latest survey came out and it showed that the number of people not happy with how President Aquino is performing.

Respondents consisting of 1,200 adults in Metro Manila, the balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, ±6% for area percentages) were asked: “Please tell me how satisfied or dissatisfied you are in the performance of Benigno Aquino III as President of the Philippines. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, undecided if satisfied or dissatisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, very dissatisfied, or you have not ever heard or read anything about Benigno Aquino III?”.

Sixty-eight percent said they are satisfied and 19 percent said they are not satisfied resulting in a net rating of 49 percent. Still good, the SWS said.

Of course, it’s good. It is still plus 49. Not minus compared to the ratings of Gloria Arroyo.

But the decline is 15 points. This is the biggest dip in satisfaction ratings.

He got his highest satisfaction rating of 67 percent in Aug. 2012, and then declined to 55 percent four months after. A 12- point slide. Even when he got his lowest satisfaction rating of 42 percent in May 2012, it was just a seven-point decrease from 49 percent March 2012 survey.

The decline in the President Satisfaction rating may hurt his ego but it should do him and the people around him good.

It should clip, even for a bit, their arrogance and their air of “we can’t be doing anything wrong because, look, the President is popular.”

It should be another wake up call. The question is, magigising ba?

The President’s reaction putting the blame on Gloria Arroyo and ignoring the rot in his administration tells us he is still in deep slumber.

SONA and the noise of democracy

July 21, 2013July 21, 2013 Ellen Leave a comment

Scene from a previous SONA rally. Thanks to Bulatlat for photo.

Last week, Social Weather Stations released the results of their survey showing a record-high satisfaction among Filipinos with the way democracy works.

It’s relevant to connect the high satisfaction high satisfaction rating of President Aquino with the public’s satisfaction of the way democracy works. That’s why it’s not surprising that Malacañang officials, of course, didn’t waste time in congratulating themselves and issued the following statement:

“We welcome the results of a survey conducted in March this year by the Social Weather Stations (SWS), on satisfaction with how democracy works at a record level of 74%. It is the highest figure since the polling firm began running the survey in 1991, surpassing the previous record-high of 70% in September 1992 and July 1998. Notably, in the four surveys conducted yearly under the Aquino administration, the figure has not dipped below 64% —the longest period of sustained satisfaction recorded throughout the five administrations since the restoration of democracy in 1986.

“True democracy includes what the President’s father called freedom from hunger. This is why we have invested in both strengthening and expanding our social safety nets so the fruits of democracy may be enjoyed by as many Filipinos as possible.

Pnoy delivers his SONA 2012.

“Realizing that democracy is a work in progress, the Aquino administration is determined to continue reforms that will help restore trust in our public institutions, renew faith in government, and empower the Filipino people.”

The survey conducted was conducted March 19-22, 2013, a little over a month before the May 2013 senatorial elections. SWS noted that in June 2004, a month after Gloria Arroyo ‘won’ the presidential election (which later on was exposed to be riddled with fraud) public atisfaction with the way democracy works was a disappointing 44%.

The March 2013 survey also found a majority 59% saying “democracy is always preferable to any other kind of government,” compared to 21% saying “under some circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic one” and 20% saying “for people like me, it does not matter whether we have a democratic or a non-democratic regime”.

SWS, however underscored that “Public preference between democracy and authoritarianism is a different issue from the degree of satisfaction with how democracy works, and is probed by a separate question, also standard in many national surveys.

Scene from a previous SONA rally. Thanks to The Guidon for photo.

Contrast this findings to the situation in Pakistan where as shown by the British Council’s Next Generation Report (as reported by Time Magazine’s Aryn Baker), only 23 percent of the 5,271 youth interviewed believe democracy has been good to their country.
Baker said the British Council report showed :Thirty-two per cer of youths said military rule would be more effective, and 38 percenr thought Shari’a, the style of Islamic law used in Saudi Arabia (and brutally imposed by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the 1990’s) was the solution. Only 29 percent though democracy was the way forward.”

Today, President Aquino will give us his version of the state of the nation. It is presumed that he will take credit for the good things going for the country even if they were a result of the measures started by previous administrations. Many will disagree with him and will criticize the picture of the country he will present.
That’s the noise of democracy and Filipinos love that.

Spin

May 3, 2013May 3, 2013 Ellen Leave a comment

It was not only PDI that used the same spin.

Spin, in media lingo, is using information to support a particular bias or slant.

It’s not exactly false but some aspects of the truth may have been glossed over.

As the campaign for the 2013 elections heats up, spin doctors are becoming more creative that sometimes, I get startled by what I hear and read.

The latest was the “Jun Magsaysay, Risa Hontiveros” in “Magic 12” bannered by not just one newspaper.

The source of the spin was the April 30 release of Pulse Asia of its April 20-22 survey on senatorial preferences where Team PNoy candidates Jun Magsaysay, who has been hovering outside the Magic Circle since the start of the campaign and Risa Hontiveros, who has been struggling in number 17 or 18 in past surveys, finally made it to number 12. Their ranking is actually 12th – 17th.

That’s great news for Team PNoy.

But, they are not the only ones in that level in a survey that has a plus or minus 2 margin of error.

Re-electionist Gregorio Honasan and Rep. Jackie Ponce-Enrile are also ranked 12th to 17th.

This is the part of the Pulse Asia press release where the spin was based: “Completing the list of probable winners are former Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri (29.7%, 10th to 16th places), Senator Gregorio Honasan (27.9%, 11th to 16th places), Cagayan Province Representative Juan Ponce Enrile, Jr. (27.2%, 11th to 16th places), former Akbayan Party-List Representative Risa Hontiveros (25.8%, 12th to 17th places) and former Senator Ramon Magsaysay, Jr. (25.6%, 12th to 17th places).”

I would not want Zubiri back in the Senate. After stealing five years of Koko Pimentel’s term, I’m appalled by his gall to claim “delicadeza”. I would love to see him dislodged from the 12th spot now.

I also would like to see Magsaysay and Hontiveros in the Senate. Their public service records are outstanding.

But there is such thing as truth in reporting.

Based on the Pulse Asia survey results, Honasan and Enrile are nearer to the Magic 12 than Magsaysay and Hontiveros.

I was not the only one puzzled by those headline spin. TV5’s Jove Francisco said on Facebook that upon reading the banner story he wanted “ to contact our statistics teachers in HS, college and in med school. Mali ba ang itinuro ninyo sa amin (Were we taught wrongly)? “

But not being a greenhorn in the business, Jove said, “I totally get the persuasion.”

Another commenter who is also a reporter said, “Nagpadala sa spin… o kasama sa gumagawa ng spin? (Carried away by the spin or part of the spin-making?) Please say it isn’t so…”

Looking at the latest Pulse Asia ranking, if Malacañang really wants to pull up Magsaysay and Hontiveros, aside from Zubiri , who are they going to pull down, out of the Magic 12? JV Ejercito and Nancy Binay are both ranked 5 -11. Are they safe there ? Koko Pimentel (6-12) and Sonny Angara (8-14) should be worried.