Pulse Asia | Prepys' Homepage

Binay in a freefall

December 13, 2014December 13, 2014 Ellen Leave a comment

Going down fast.

Obviously, Vice President Jejomar Binay’s early campaigning was not enough to offset the negative impact of the Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee investigation which has exposed his alleged mindboggling corruption operations in Makati City.

His scores in Pulse Asia surveys on presidential preference, performance and trust ratings are in a freefall.

In the survey conducted November 14 to 20 Binay’s rating dropped by 21 percentage points (from 66 percent in September to only 45 percent in November).

His trust rating also took a steep decline – 20 percentage points, from 64 percent in September to 44 percent in November.

On presidential preference, he started from a high of 41 per cent in June-July 2014 survey, he dropped to 31 per cent in last September’s poll.

Last month Pulse Asia asked 1,200 adults all over the country who they would vote for president of the 14 names in the list if elections were held today. Binay was down to 26 per cent.

Steep decline of Binay’s performance rating

It should be stressed that at 26 per cent, the Vice President is still the leading presidential hopeful. (Sen. Grace Poe is second with 18 percent followed by Sen.Miriam Santiago with 12 percent, and Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada with 10 percent. Sen. Francis Escudero is if fifth with seven percent and Interior Secretary Mar Roxas is sixth with six per cent.)

It is 17 months away to the 2016 election. Binay sympathizers say there is still a lot of time for the people to forget all the corruption allegations and images of unexplained wealth like the Batangas Hacienda.
That is, if Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV are through with him.

The issues raised in the Senate hearings have taken a life of their own: More information on his dark dealings and connections are being fed to media. The Bureau of Internal Revenue is following tips that were brought out in the Senate investigation. Same thing with the Office of the Ombudsman.

For this Christmas season and in January, when the people would be pre-occupied with the visit of Pope Francis, Binay would have a respite. After that, the battle will continue.

It’s not only the Vice President. His wife, former Makati Mayor Elenita Binay, would be busy with her own graft cases. Of course, she would have no problem with posting bail but still, it’s stressful.

More plunder charges are expected to be filed against the vice president. He has to fend that off because plunder is unbailable. He can’t afford to be in detention during the campaign. That situation may turn him into a martyr but that would cramp his campaign.

Binay’s camp say that the Vice President cannot be sued invoking the Constitutional provision that “There shall be a Vice-President who shall have the same qualifications and term of office and be elected with, and in the same manner, as the President. He may be removed from office in the same manner as the President.”

One school of thought is that, since the President is immune from suit while in office and can only be removed by impeachment, the same applies to the Vice President.

There are other lawyers who disagree.

The question is expected to be brought before the Supreme Court. Until the issue is resolved, potential contributors will hold back and wait for clearer signals. That would adversely affect Binay’s campaign.

Further decline in voters preference would be extremely detrimental to Binay’s presidential ambition.

Puzzling numbers in Pulse Asia’s latest survey

October 1, 2014October 1, 2014 Ellen Leave a comment

Sept 2014 Pulse Asia survey.

At last, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas numbers moved up.

In a survey conducted by Pulse Asia, Roxas numbers almost doubled in a matter of two months. From seven percent last week of June, it jumped to 13 percent second week of September.

What could be the factors that contributed to respondents finally discovering Roxas after years of ignoring him when asked who they would vote if elections were held at the time the survey was conducted?

A quick scan of media headlines yielded only two issues where Roxas was featured in a prominent role: the announcement of the identification of police officers involved in the brazen EDSA daytime hulidap and his suggestion that President Aquino extends his stay in Malacañang beyond 2016.

Could that have gained for him enormous credit worth six percentage points jump in ratings?

It should be noted that on several occasions when President Aquino stressed the importance that his successor would be the one that would continue his “tuwid na daan” policy Roxas was beside him. Could Aquino’s popularity have rubbed off on him? But then Aquino’s satisfaction rating has been on the decline these past months.

Vice President Jejomar Binay and Interior Secretary Mar Roxas in a public meeting.

It’s possible that the increase of Roxas’s numbers was due to the demolition of Binay.

Since they were adversaries in the 2010 vice presidential elections and are expected to again be against each other in the 2016 presidential elections, Roxas is being presented as the opposite of Binay. The scenario being painted is frontrunner Binay is corrupt and Roxas is Mr. Clean.

Binay, as the survey showed, was clearly hurt by the expose on the alleged overpriced Makati City Hall Building 2 and other stories about institutionalized corruption when he was mayor and being continued by his son, Junjun.

A ten percentage point decline in Binay’s rating – from 41 percent last June down to 31 percent second week of September- is a huge drop. Binay should be worried considering that his opponents have said they are not through with him yet.

But I find the survey numbers puzzling.

Why did the rating of Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, who, together with Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, led the attack on Binay, also drop? From five per cent last June, Cayetano’s rating dipped to one.

Puzzling also is the decline in Sen. Grace Poe’s rating from 12 percent to 10 percent.Yet, the rating of former President Joseph Estrada increased by one percentage point -from nine to 10.

It’s still one year and eight months to the May 2016 elections. There are a lot of factors that will come into play.

But what is becoming clear is that the strategy of pulling down Binay to “level the playing field” is working in Roxas’s favor.

Survey says House, Senate, SC trust ratings all below majority

August 4, 2014August 4, 2014 Ed Lingao Leave a comment

Supreme Court most trusted, more distrust for House and Senate

By Julius D. Mariveles

THE SUPREME COURT, the Senate, and the House of Representatives have all failed to score majority approval and trust ratings, according to the results of the latest “Ulat ng Bayan” of Pulse Asia Research, a creditable national pollster.

This is the unfortunate result of a nationwide survey on the performance and trust ratings of key government institutions that Pulse Asia conducted from June 24 to July 2, 2014, among a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above.

The Supreme Court got a 49 percent performance rating, or higher than the scores of the Senate and House of Representatives of 33 percent and 34 percent, respectively.

The High Court was also the most trusted, with a 42 percent approval rating. In contrast, the House of Representatives was the least trusted with 29 percent, while the Senate got 31 percent.

The nationwide survey, the results of which were released this August, had a margin of error of plus or minus three percent and a confidence level of 95 percent, Pulse Asia said in a news release.

It added that the subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas have a plus or minus six percent margin of error, also at 95 percent confidence level.

The same survey showed that disapproval and distrust are “more pronounced” for the House and the Senate.

In the disapproval ratings, the high court got 13 percent compared to the House’s 21 percent and the Senate’s 23 percent.

The Senate got the highest distrust level at 20 percent compared to the House’s 19 percent and the Supreme Court’s 10 percent (Please see Tables 1 to 2).

Pulse Asia also noted that while the assessment of the Supreme Court’s work and trustworthiness remained unchanged between two survey periods – March 14 and June 14 – the two chambers of Congress “experienced significant changes in their respective ratings – at the national level and across selected survey sub-groupings.”

Between March and June 2014, the Senate experienced a significant drop in its national approval score with minus eight percentage points and an increase in its overall disapproval rating of plus nine percentage points.

There was also a noted decline in the level of appreciation for the Senate’s work in Metro Manila by minus 14 percentage points, in Mindanao by minus 15 percentage points, and in Classes ABC and D by minus nine to minus 19 percentage points (Please see Table 3).

DECLINE IN THE FACE OF PDAF SCAM

Trust ratings in the Senate and the House of Representatives also dropped amidst the controversy over the Priority Development Assistance (PDAF) or pork barrel scam.

The Senate’s ratings dropped by minus 14 percentage points in the Visayas, minus 15 in Mindanao, minus 18 in Metro Manila, and minus 15 to 18 percentage points in Classes ABC and E. Meanwhile, the Lower House’s trust ratings dropped by minus 15 percentage points in Class E and minus 16 percentage points in Metro Manila.

Pulse Asia pointed out that fewer Filipinos expressed trust in the Senate and House of Representatives in June 2014 than six months ago while the distrust in the Supreme Court eased between December 2013 and June 2014 (Please see Table 4).

Among the issues according to Pulse Asia that “preoccupied” Filipinos before and during the conduct of the field interviews for the survey were the following:

The filing of charges of plunder and violation and anti-graft laws against some senators and the indictment of Janet Lim Napoles and some members of the legislative staffs of Senators Juan Ponce Enrile, Jinggoy Estrada, and Bong Revilla. The surrenders of Revilla and Estrada following the issuance of arrest warrants against them; and the “not guilty” pleas entered by the Sandiganbayan in their behalf;
The Office of the Ombudsman’s denial of the petition for immunity of Napoles and several other government officials;
The petition of the Office of the Ombudsman before the Sandiganbayan for the creation of two special courts to handle cases related to the pork barrel scam;
The decision issued by the Supreme Court declaring several acts under the Disbursement Acceleration Program as unconstitutional;
The statement of support for President Aquino made by House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte, Jr. and other pro-administration lawmakers in response to calls for the President’s impeachment and the resignation of Budget Sec. Florencio Abad coming from some opposition lawmakers and militant groups;
The creation by the Office of the Ombudsman of a panel that will investigate the realignments in the national budget made by the administration under the DAP;
The Sandiganbayan’s order to suspend former President and incumbent Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo for 90 days in connection with her alleged involvement in the NBN-ZTE deal;
The continued tension between the Philippines and China over the disputed territories in the West Philippine Sea;
The President’s call for the Philippine National Police to swiftly resolve crime incidents after the recent series of killings involving several high-profile individuals;
The confirmation of the appointments of Justice Sec. Leila De Lima, Social Welfare Sec. Corazon J. Soliman, and Environment Sec. Ramon J.P. Paje after being in office for four years;
The celebration of the 116^th Philippine Independence Day on June 12 with President Aquino leading the rites in Naga City;
The controversial decision of President Aquino to reject the nomination of Nora Aunor as National Artist for Film;
The continued failure of the Bureau of Internal Revenue and the Bureau of Customs to meet their collection targets for the month of May 2014;
The decline in power rates charged by the Manila Electric Company in June 2014;
The increase in oil prices due to the continued crisis in Iraq;
The hike in the prices of rice, garlic, and sugar reportedly due to lower supply levels; and
The DBM’s budget proposal totaling P2.06 trillion for the year 2015.

Spin

May 3, 2013May 3, 2013 Ellen Leave a comment

It was not only PDI that used the same spin.

Spin, in media lingo, is using information to support a particular bias or slant.

It’s not exactly false but some aspects of the truth may have been glossed over.

As the campaign for the 2013 elections heats up, spin doctors are becoming more creative that sometimes, I get startled by what I hear and read.

The latest was the “Jun Magsaysay, Risa Hontiveros” in “Magic 12” bannered by not just one newspaper.

The source of the spin was the April 30 release of Pulse Asia of its April 20-22 survey on senatorial preferences where Team PNoy candidates Jun Magsaysay, who has been hovering outside the Magic Circle since the start of the campaign and Risa Hontiveros, who has been struggling in number 17 or 18 in past surveys, finally made it to number 12. Their ranking is actually 12th – 17th.

That’s great news for Team PNoy.

But, they are not the only ones in that level in a survey that has a plus or minus 2 margin of error.

Re-electionist Gregorio Honasan and Rep. Jackie Ponce-Enrile are also ranked 12th to 17th.

This is the part of the Pulse Asia press release where the spin was based: “Completing the list of probable winners are former Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri (29.7%, 10th to 16th places), Senator Gregorio Honasan (27.9%, 11th to 16th places), Cagayan Province Representative Juan Ponce Enrile, Jr. (27.2%, 11th to 16th places), former Akbayan Party-List Representative Risa Hontiveros (25.8%, 12th to 17th places) and former Senator Ramon Magsaysay, Jr. (25.6%, 12th to 17th places).”

I would not want Zubiri back in the Senate. After stealing five years of Koko Pimentel’s term, I’m appalled by his gall to claim “delicadeza”. I would love to see him dislodged from the 12th spot now.

I also would like to see Magsaysay and Hontiveros in the Senate. Their public service records are outstanding.

But there is such thing as truth in reporting.

Based on the Pulse Asia survey results, Honasan and Enrile are nearer to the Magic 12 than Magsaysay and Hontiveros.

I was not the only one puzzled by those headline spin. TV5’s Jove Francisco said on Facebook that upon reading the banner story he wanted “ to contact our statistics teachers in HS, college and in med school. Mali ba ang itinuro ninyo sa amin (Were we taught wrongly)? “

But not being a greenhorn in the business, Jove said, “I totally get the persuasion.”

Another commenter who is also a reporter said, “Nagpadala sa spin… o kasama sa gumagawa ng spin? (Carried away by the spin or part of the spin-making?) Please say it isn’t so…”

Looking at the latest Pulse Asia ranking, if Malacañang really wants to pull up Magsaysay and Hontiveros, aside from Zubiri , who are they going to pull down, out of the Magic 12? JV Ejercito and Nancy Binay are both ranked 5 -11. Are they safe there ? Koko Pimentel (6-12) and Sonny Angara (8-14) should be worried.