Category: Pulse Asia

The usefulness of election surveys

Ellen Leave a comment

Surveys if conducted by professionals and executed with integrity are gauge of the sentiments of the people.

I have to stress “executed with integrity” because during election season, there are surveys and surveys. One has to check on the background of the survey firms, who commissioned the survey as well as the questions asked.

Grace Poe

Grace Poe

As Sen. Grace Poe said, thanking her supporters for their trust that put her as the frontrunner among presidential aspirants, “Surveys help us check if we’re on the right track.”

But she said, “We derive our inspiration from the needs and aspirations of our country, with or without surveys.”

Poe declared her presidential candidacy for the 2016 elections last Sept. 16. The next day, fellow senator who is also known as her mentor, Chiz Escudero, announced that he is Poe’s running mate.

The Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia released last week their latest surveys. SWS conducted their survey last Sept. 2 to 5 while Pulse Asia started their poll earlier, Aug. 27 up to Sept. 3.

In both SWS and Pulse Asia polls, Poe was the frontrunner followed by Vice President Jejomar Binay and former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas in the third place.

The most significant in both surveys is the huge jump of the ratings of Roxas, who used to be a perennial cellar dweller. Although Roxas is still number three, analysts say that the huge increase of his numbers have put him in a “statistical tie” with Poe and Binay, whose numbers have gone down significantly since the investigation of alleged anomalies in the Makati City building projects.

Jejomar Binay

Jejomar Binay

In fact, in one survey of SWS, which asked for three names on “Best leaders to succeed President Aquino in 2016”, Roxas was number two, overtaking Binay for the first time.

The survey was criticized by those knowledgeable on surveys for asking for three names when the position is only for one person.

While surveys are used by candidates to find out their strength and weaknesses and plan their campaign guided by the findings, its most important use is for businessmen-contributors.

Businessmen rely on surveys to decide who to give the most donation (they try to give to all candidates). Reliable sources said San Miguel Corporation’s Ramon Ang has thrown his support for Poe and so are at least four other businessmen, who are known to be major election contributors.

Sen. Alan Cayetano’s lackluster survey ratings, despite his non-stop TV ads for almost a year, is the reason why he has lowered his sight to being running mate of Roxas, who has not yet obtained the imprimatur of President Aquino.

Dr. Segundo Romero, who provides consultancy services on governance, likens surveys to a thermometer, a tool that measures temperature — how hot or cold the place or something is.

Mar Roxas

Mar Roxas

However the more manipulative candidates try to influence survey findings.

Romero said, if that happens, the survey is no longer a thermometer. It becomes a thermostat – an automatic device for regulating temperature (as by controlling the supply of gas or electricity to a heating apparatus).

Candidates employ experienced pollsters in their campaign staff who advise the kind of events to hold close to the dates the survey would be conducted.

The formulation of the question is an important factor in the survey results.
Surveys to be truly reflective of the people’s sentiments have to be free of manipulation.

Or else, naglolokohan lang tayo.

The usefulness of election surveys

Ellen Leave a comment

Surveys if conducted by professionals and executed with integrity are gauge of the sentiments of the people.

I have to stress “executed with integrity” because during election season, there are surveys and surveys. One has to check on the background of the survey firms, who commissioned the survey as well as the questions asked.

Grace Poe

Grace Poe

As Sen. Grace Poe said, thanking her supporters for their trust that put her as the frontrunner among presidential aspirants, “Surveys help us check if we’re on the right track.”

But she said, “We derive our inspiration from the needs and aspirations of our country, with or without surveys.”

Poe declared her presidential candidacy for the 2016 elections last Sept. 16. The next day, fellow senator who is also known as her mentor, Chiz Escudero, announced that he is Poe’s running mate.

The Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia released last week their latest surveys. SWS conducted their survey last Sept. 2 to 5 while Pulse Asia started their poll earlier, Aug. 27 up to Sept. 3.

In both SWS and Pulse Asia polls, Poe was the frontrunner followed by Vice President Jejomar Binay and former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas in the third place.

The most significant in both surveys is the huge jump of the ratings of Roxas, who used to be a perennial cellar dweller. Although Roxas is still number three, analysts say that the huge increase of his numbers have put him in a “statistical tie” with Poe and Binay, whose numbers have gone down significantly since the investigation of alleged anomalies in the Makati City building projects.

Jejomar Binay

Jejomar Binay

In fact, in one survey of SWS, which asked for three names on “Best leaders to succeed President Aquino in 2016”, Roxas was number two, overtaking Binay for the first time.

The survey was criticized by those knowledgeable on surveys for asking for three names when the position is only for one person.

While surveys are used by candidates to find out their strength and weaknesses and plan their campaign guided by the findings, its most important use is for businessmen-contributors.

Businessmen rely on surveys to decide who to give the most donation (they try to give to all candidates). Reliable sources said San Miguel Corporation’s Ramon Ang has thrown his support for Poe and so are at least four other businessmen, who are known to be major election contributors.

Sen. Alan Cayetano’s lackluster survey ratings, despite his non-stop TV ads for almost a year, is the reason why he has lowered his sight to being running mate of Roxas, who has not yet obtained the imprimatur of President Aquino.

Dr. Segundo Romero, who provides consultancy services on governance, likens surveys to a thermometer, a tool that measures temperature — how hot or cold the place or something is.

Mar Roxas

Mar Roxas

However the more manipulative candidates try to influence survey findings.

Romero said, if that happens, the survey is no longer a thermometer. It becomes a thermostat – an automatic device for regulating temperature (as by controlling the supply of gas or electricity to a heating apparatus).

Candidates employ experienced pollsters in their campaign staff who advise the kind of events to hold close to the dates the survey would be conducted.

The formulation of the question is an important factor in the survey results.
Surveys to be truly reflective of the people’s sentiments have to be free of manipulation.

Or else, naglolokohan lang tayo.

Binay in a freefall

Ellen Leave a comment

Going down fast.

Going down fast.

Obviously, Vice President Jejomar Binay’s early campaigning was not enough to offset the negative impact of the Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee investigation which has exposed his alleged mindboggling corruption operations in Makati City.

His scores in Pulse Asia surveys on presidential preference, performance and trust ratings are in a freefall.

In the survey conducted November 14 to 20 Binay’s rating dropped by 21 percentage points (from 66 percent in September to only 45 percent in November).

His trust rating also took a steep decline – 20 percentage points, from 64 percent in September to 44 percent in November.

On presidential preference, he started from a high of 41 per cent in June-July 2014 survey, he dropped to 31 per cent in last September’s poll.

Last month Pulse Asia asked 1,200 adults all over the country who they would vote for president of the 14 names in the list if elections were held today. Binay was down to 26 per cent.

Steep decline of Binay's performance rating

Steep decline of Binay’s performance rating

It should be stressed that at 26 per cent, the Vice President is still the leading presidential hopeful. (Sen. Grace Poe is second with 18 percent followed by Sen.Miriam Santiago with 12 percent, and Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada with 10 percent. Sen. Francis Escudero is if fifth with seven percent and Interior Secretary Mar Roxas is sixth with six per cent.)

It is 17 months away to the 2016 election. Binay sympathizers say there is still a lot of time for the people to forget all the corruption allegations and images of unexplained wealth like the Batangas Hacienda.
That is, if Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV are through with him.

The issues raised in the Senate hearings have taken a life of their own: More information on his dark dealings and connections are being fed to media. The Bureau of Internal Revenue is following tips that were brought out in the Senate investigation. Same thing with the Office of the Ombudsman.

For this Christmas season and in January, when the people would be pre-occupied with the visit of Pope Francis, Binay would have a respite. After that, the battle will continue.

It’s not only the Vice President. His wife, former Makati Mayor Elenita Binay, would be busy with her own graft cases. Of course, she would have no problem with posting bail but still, it’s stressful.

More plunder charges are expected to be filed against the vice president. He has to fend that off because plunder is unbailable. He can’t afford to be in detention during the campaign. That situation may turn him into a martyr but that would cramp his campaign.

Binay’s camp say that the Vice President cannot be sued invoking the Constitutional provision that “There shall be a Vice-President who shall have the same qualifications and term of office and be elected with, and in the same manner, as the President. He may be removed from office in the same manner as the President.”

One school of thought is that, since the President is immune from suit while in office and can only be removed by impeachment, the same applies to the Vice President.

There are other lawyers who disagree.

The question is expected to be brought before the Supreme Court. Until the issue is resolved, potential contributors will hold back and wait for clearer signals. That would adversely affect Binay’s campaign.

Further decline in voters preference would be extremely detrimental to Binay’s presidential ambition.

Binay in a freefall

Ellen Leave a comment

Going down fast.

Going down fast.

Obviously, Vice President Jejomar Binay’s early campaigning was not enough to offset the negative impact of the Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee investigation which has exposed his alleged mindboggling corruption operations in Makati City.

His scores in Pulse Asia surveys on presidential preference, performance and trust ratings are in a freefall.

In the survey conducted November 14 to 20 Binay’s rating dropped by 21 percentage points (from 66 percent in September to only 45 percent in November).

His trust rating also took a steep decline – 20 percentage points, from 64 percent in September to 44 percent in November.

On presidential preference, he started from a high of 41 per cent in June-July 2014 survey, he dropped to 31 per cent in last September’s poll.

Last month Pulse Asia asked 1,200 adults all over the country who they would vote for president of the 14 names in the list if elections were held today. Binay was down to 26 per cent.

Steep decline of Binay's performance rating

Steep decline of Binay’s performance rating

It should be stressed that at 26 per cent, the Vice President is still the leading presidential hopeful. (Sen. Grace Poe is second with 18 percent followed by Sen.Miriam Santiago with 12 percent, and Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada with 10 percent. Sen. Francis Escudero is if fifth with seven percent and Interior Secretary Mar Roxas is sixth with six per cent.)

It is 17 months away to the 2016 election. Binay sympathizers say there is still a lot of time for the people to forget all the corruption allegations and images of unexplained wealth like the Batangas Hacienda.
That is, if Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV are through with him.

The issues raised in the Senate hearings have taken a life of their own: More information on his dark dealings and connections are being fed to media. The Bureau of Internal Revenue is following tips that were brought out in the Senate investigation. Same thing with the Office of the Ombudsman.

For this Christmas season and in January, when the people would be pre-occupied with the visit of Pope Francis, Binay would have a respite. After that, the battle will continue.

It’s not only the Vice President. His wife, former Makati Mayor Elenita Binay, would be busy with her own graft cases. Of course, she would have no problem with posting bail but still, it’s stressful.

More plunder charges are expected to be filed against the vice president. He has to fend that off because plunder is unbailable. He can’t afford to be in detention during the campaign. That situation may turn him into a martyr but that would cramp his campaign.

Binay’s camp say that the Vice President cannot be sued invoking the Constitutional provision that “There shall be a Vice-President who shall have the same qualifications and term of office and be elected with, and in the same manner, as the President. He may be removed from office in the same manner as the President.”

One school of thought is that, since the President is immune from suit while in office and can only be removed by impeachment, the same applies to the Vice President.

There are other lawyers who disagree.

The question is expected to be brought before the Supreme Court. Until the issue is resolved, potential contributors will hold back and wait for clearer signals. That would adversely affect Binay’s campaign.

Further decline in voters preference would be extremely detrimental to Binay’s presidential ambition.

Binay in a freefall

Ellen Leave a comment

Going down fast.

Going down fast.

Obviously, Vice President Jejomar Binay’s early campaigning was not enough to offset the negative impact of the Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee investigation which has exposed his alleged mindboggling corruption operations in Makati City.

His scores in Pulse Asia surveys on presidential preference, performance and trust ratings are in a freefall.

In the survey conducted November 14 to 20 Binay’s rating dropped by 21 percentage points (from 66 percent in September to only 45 percent in November).

His trust rating also took a steep decline – 20 percentage points, from 64 percent in September to 44 percent in November.

On presidential preference, he started from a high of 41 per cent in June-July 2014 survey, he dropped to 31 per cent in last September’s poll.

Last month Pulse Asia asked 1,200 adults all over the country who they would vote for president of the 14 names in the list if elections were held today. Binay was down to 26 per cent.

Steep decline of Binay's performance rating

Steep decline of Binay’s performance rating

It should be stressed that at 26 per cent, the Vice President is still the leading presidential hopeful. (Sen. Grace Poe is second with 18 percent followed by Sen.Miriam Santiago with 12 percent, and Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada with 10 percent. Sen. Francis Escudero is if fifth with seven percent and Interior Secretary Mar Roxas is sixth with six per cent.)

It is 17 months away to the 2016 election. Binay sympathizers say there is still a lot of time for the people to forget all the corruption allegations and images of unexplained wealth like the Batangas Hacienda.
That is, if Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV are through with him.

The issues raised in the Senate hearings have taken a life of their own: More information on his dark dealings and connections are being fed to media. The Bureau of Internal Revenue is following tips that were brought out in the Senate investigation. Same thing with the Office of the Ombudsman.

For this Christmas season and in January, when the people would be pre-occupied with the visit of Pope Francis, Binay would have a respite. After that, the battle will continue.

It’s not only the Vice President. His wife, former Makati Mayor Elenita Binay, would be busy with her own graft cases. Of course, she would have no problem with posting bail but still, it’s stressful.

More plunder charges are expected to be filed against the vice president. He has to fend that off because plunder is unbailable. He can’t afford to be in detention during the campaign. That situation may turn him into a martyr but that would cramp his campaign.

Binay’s camp say that the Vice President cannot be sued invoking the Constitutional provision that “There shall be a Vice-President who shall have the same qualifications and term of office and be elected with, and in the same manner, as the President. He may be removed from office in the same manner as the President.”

One school of thought is that, since the President is immune from suit while in office and can only be removed by impeachment, the same applies to the Vice President.

There are other lawyers who disagree.

The question is expected to be brought before the Supreme Court. Until the issue is resolved, potential contributors will hold back and wait for clearer signals. That would adversely affect Binay’s campaign.

Further decline in voters preference would be extremely detrimental to Binay’s presidential ambition.