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Inflation, workers’ pay, corruption? PNoy scores low approval ratings

March 24, 2015March 24, 2015 Julius Mariveles Leave a comment

THE ADMINISTRATION of President Benigno S.Aquino III failed to score a majority approval rating on any of the 12 “urgent national concerns and issues” on which it is performance was rated in March 2015 by the creditable pollster Pulse Asia Research Inc.

However, it scored a big plurality to near majority approval ratings on seven national issues: promoting peace in the country (40 percent), enforcing the rule of law (41percent), fighting governmental corruption (42 percent), defending national territorial integrity (43 percent), fighting criminality (45 percent), protecting the environment (48 percent), and addressing the needs of calamity victims (49 percent).

But disapproval was the plurality opinion that the Aquino administration got on the top three urgent national concerns of Filipinos, notably “controlling inflation,” “improving/increasing the pay of workers” and “controlling graft and corruption in the government.”

CONTROLLING inflation was the most urgent national concern based on the results of the Ulan ng Bayan survey of the Social Weather Stations on the urgent national concerns and performance ratings of the national administration. Photo shows a shopping list of a mother-sugarworker in Negros Occidental during the tigkiriwi or the off-milling season | Photo by Julius D. Mariveles

CONTROLLING inflation was the most urgent national concern based on the results of the Ulat ng Bayan survey of the Social Weather Stations on the urgent national concerns and performance ratings of the national administration. Photo shows a shopping list of a mother-sugarworker in Negros Occidental during the tigkiriwi or the off-milling season | Photo by Julius D. Mariveles

Pulse Asia said the administration’s disapproval rating also remained the dominant sentiment as far as its efforts to reduce poverty at 40 percent.

Field work for Pulse Asia’s latest Ulat ng Bayan survey on “Urgent National Concerns and the Performance Ratings of the National Administration on Selected Issues” was conducted from March 1 – 7, 2015 using face-to-face interviews.

The major events that transpired during the last four months included the January 25, 2015 encounter in Mamasapano, Maguindanao.

IMPROVING / increasing the pay of workers was the second most urgent concern, the Ulat ng Bayan survey results show | Photo by Julius D. Mariveles

The survey, Pulse Asia said, “showed that the administration scored almost the same approval and indecision figures for its initiatives to create more jobs (37 percent versus 33 percent) and control population growth (37 percent versus 33 percent.)”

Public opinion, meanwhile, is split three-ways with respect to its performance in the area of increasing the pay of workers – 33 percent approval, 35 percent indecision, and 33 percent disapproval. However, appreciation is the plurality view concerning its anti-corruption work (42 percent).

These scores, Pulse Asia said, showed that “public assessment of the national administration’s performance remains largely unchanged” between November 2014, when it last conducted its Ulat ng Bayan survey, and March 2015, the date of its latest survey.

According to Pulse Asia, “for the most part, the performance ratings of the Aquino administration in March 2015 do not differ significantly from those recorded four months ago. ”

The only exceptions to this observation are, it said are the following: “decline in approval for the administration’s initiatives to defend national territorial integrity (-7 percentage points); (2) decrease in the level of ambivalence regarding its work in the area of enforcing the law equally on all citizens (-8 percentage points); and (3) increase in disapproval for its efforts to enforce the rule of law (+8 percentage points) and promote peace (+8 percentage points).”

FILIPINOS expect the Aquino administration to fight graft and corruption in government. This is the top three most urgent national concern. Photo shows a child with her mother who was working in a canefield in Negros Occidental | Photo by Julius D. Mariveles

The March 2015 Ulat ng Bayan Survey revealed that “Filipinos continue to be most concerned about economic-related issues; their sense of urgency regarding selected national issues remains unchanged between November 2014 and March 2015 as well as year-on-year.”

“In March 2015, the leading urgent national concerns among Filipinos are controlling inflation (46 percent), increasing the pay of workers (44 percent), and fighting corruption in government (40 percent), the report said.

“A second set of urgent national concerns include poverty reduction (37 percent) and job creation (34 percent) while a third cluster is comprised of criminality (22 percent), peace (22 percent), and rule of law (19 percent). Filipinos are least concerned about environmental degradation (13 percent), population control (9 percent), national territorial integrity (5 percent), terrorism (5 percent), and charter change (4 percent),” it added.

REDUCING poverty of many Filipinos was the fourth most urgent concern, the Ulat ng Bayan shows | Photo by Julius D. Mariveles

These overall figures are “essentially the same as those recorded by Pulse Asia Research a year ago as well as in November 2014.”

In the different geographic areas, Pulse Asia said only two issues were cited as an urgent national concern by majority of residents – “inflation (52 percent in Mindanao) and low workers’ pay (53 percent in the Visayas).”

In Metro Manila, it added that, “the most often mentioned urgent national concerns are low workers’ pay (41 percent), inflation (43 percent), and corruption (49 percent).”

In the rest of Luzon, the top concerns deemed urgent by residents are creating more jobs (37 percent), fighting governmental corruption (38 percent), reducing poverty (41 percent), controlling inflation (44 percent), and increasing the pay of workers (48 percent).

Class ABC “are most concerned about corruption in government (37 percent), poverty (37 percent), low workers’ pay (42 percent), and inflation (49 percent).”

Class D rated its leading urgent national concerns to be low workers’ pay (43 percent), corruption (43 percent), and inflation (45 percent).

Class E cited its most concerned to be poverty (41 percent), job creation (42 percent), low workers’ pay (46 percent), and inflation (47 percent).

Across all geographic areas and socio-economic classes, however, “the least often cited urgent national concerns are territorial integrity (3 percent to 7 percent and 4 percent to 6 percent, respectively), terrorism (3 percent to 8 percent and 4 percent to 7 percent, respectively), and charter change (3 percent to 6 percent and 4 percent to 5 percent.”

As in its previous surveys, Pulse Asia’s latest was “based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above” and “has a ± 3% error margin at the 95 percent confidence level.”

“Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 6% error margin, also at 95 percent confidence level.” It added.

Pulse Asia said its pool of academic fellows “takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data.” Most important of all, “in keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.”

“Pulse Asia Research undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort,” it said.

Unseating unfit politicians

March 22, 2015March 22, 2015 mcmangahas Leave a comment

MANY FILIPINOS might have heard the term “recall election” but how it happens and what it consists of are matters now better known to the voters of Bulacan province and Puerto Princesa City in Palawan. A recall election seems under way for these two localities.

A recall petition against Bulacan Governor Wilhelmino Sy-Alvarado has been filed with the Commission on Elections (Comelec) on April 28, 2014. The petition signed by 319,777 registered voters cited this reason: loss of confidence in the governor. The number of signatures surpassed the 10 percent requirement for local government units with voting population of over 300,000.

GOVERNOR Wilhelmino Sy-Alvarado, left, turns over a Pantawid Pasada card to a beneficiary | Photo from bulacan.gov.ph

As of 2013, Comelec data show that Bulacan has a total voting population of 1,497,836. Because the petition has satisfied the requirements for a recall petition, the Comelec subsequently conducted a verification and review of the signatures in the recall petition.

Meanwhile in Puerto Princesa City, voters have signed on to a recall petition against Mayor Lucilo Bayron. Filed with the Comelec on March 17, 2014, the petition cited “breach of trust” among other reasons. For supposed lack of funds, the Comelec has suspended the recall process, however.

MAYOR LUCILO BAYRON | Photo from Lucilo ‘Cecil’ Bayron Facebook page

But on Nov. 25, 2014, the Supreme Court ordered the Comelec to conduct the recall election, citing that doing so was precisely part of the poll body’s specific functions. The high court pointed out as well that there is “an existing line item appropriation for the conduct of recall elections in the 2014 GAA (General Appropriations Act).”

What is a recall petition and how can it serve voters a powerful tool to unseat local executives they deem to be unworthy or underserving of their trust?

Republic Act No. 7160 or the “Local Government Code of 1991″ allows registered voters of an LGU to remove a local elective official from office through a recall election.

Section 70 of the Code states that a recall election may be initiated when a recall petition is filed before the Comelec.

The petition must contain the names, addresses, and signatures of the petitioners, the LGU to which they belong, the name of the official they want to be recalled, and a brief narration of the reasons why they want to recall the official.

The petition must also meet the required number of registered voters signing on to the petition. Failing this, the petition may be automatically nullified.

For various LGUs, the Code specifies the required number of registered voters signing on to recall petitions:

* At least 25 percent in LGUs with a voting population of not more than 20,000.

* At least 20 percent in LGUs with at least 20,000 but not more than 75,000 voters, but in no case shall the required petitioners be less than 5,000.

* At least 15 percent in LGUs with at least 75,000 but not more than 300,000 voters, but in no case shall the required number of petitioners be less than 15,000.

* At least 10 percent in LGUs with over 300,000 voters, but in no case shall the required number of petitioners be less than 45,000.

After all the requirements for the petition have been fulfilled, the Comelec will provide a copy of the petition to the official the petitioners want to unseat. The official cannot resign his or her post while the recall process is under way.

The petition will also be published in a national and local newspaper once a week for three consecutive weeks at the expense of the petitioners. The Comelec will then start to verify and authenticate the signatures of the petitioners and registered voters who signed on to the petition.

During the period, a challenge or protest against the petition may be filed; the Comelec shall rule on it with finality within 15 days from the filing of the challenge or protest. If the Comelec decides in favor of the petition, it will then announce the acceptance of candidates to the position and prepare the list of candidates, including the official that the petition wants to recall.

The date of the recall election will then be announced, with the Comelec covering for all the entailed expenses.

It is only upon the proclamation of the winner in the recall election that the recall petition’s effect on its subject official could take effect. However, if the same official should turn out as the winner in the recall election, the voters’ confidence in him is deemed affirmed and he or she shall remain in office.

An elective official may be named the subject of a recall petition only once during his or her tenure for loss of confidence. In addition, the recall election may take place only after a year from the date of the official’s assumption to office or one year immediately preceding a regular local election.

Because of the costs entailed in rolling out a recall petition, F.E. Olimpio, in a commentary published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer in May 2014, lamented that the recall law seems to favor rich and well-entrenched politicians with resources to run recall election campaigns within just a year after regular elections.

Olimpo cited the case of former Puerto Princesa City Mayor Edward Hagedorn who won in a recall election conducted following a recall petition that had been filed earlier against Hagedorn’s political rival who was the incumbent mayor at the time.

On July 2, 2002, a recall resolution spearheaded by the city’s barangay officials was filed against then Mayor Victorino Dennis Socrates. The Comelec scheduled the recall election for mayor within 30 days from receipt of the recall resolution.

Hagedorn, who had just finished his term as Puerto Princesa City mayor, filed his certificate of candidacy for mayor in the recall election. Because he had by then served his third three-year term as mayor, Hagedorn should have been barred from running again as mayor. The Comelec, however, allowed Hagedorn to run for mayor in the recall election.

Hands down, Hagedorn received the highest number of votes and won in the recall election. His proclamation was delayed though after a petition filed with the Supreme Court questioned his qualification to run yet again as mayor. On Nov. 12, 2002, the high court dismissed the petition and lifted the temporary restraining order it had issued earlier to stop Hagedorn’s proclamation.

In time, Hagedorn was allowed to run as mayor of Puerto Princesa City a second round of three consecutive terms, or from November 12, 2002 to June 30, 2013. – Fernando Cabigao, PCIJ, March 2015

15 years ago: Erap’s all-out war

March 21, 2015March 21, 2015 Julius Mariveles Leave a comment

INFOGRAPHICS by Cong B. Corrales

Click on the infographics below to read our 2012 article, “The Hidden Costs of War in Mindanao.”

INFOGRAPHICS by Cong B. Corrales

Filling up vacancies in the Palace

March 20, 2015March 20, 2015 mcmangahas Leave a comment

By Charmaine P. Lirio

THE LATEST public opinion poll of PulseAsia Research yields a split opinion among Filipinos on the question of whether or not President Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III should stay in office or resign, on account of the Mamasapano incident.

A slim 42 percent majority disagrees with calls for Aquino to step down, 29 percent agrees, and a significant 29 percent remains undecided.

Controversies have often sparked similar calls for presidents before Aquino to quit their post but the Philippines has had no experience of an incumbent chief executive voluntarily stepping down, or at least not before people power episodes unfold.

Aquino is the nation’s 15th president. Already, however, the country has witnessed five presidential vacancies – three triggered by death and two others by people power revolts.

FORMER PRESIDENT Manuel Quezon, seated, second from right, with his family | Photo from Presidential Museum and Library PH Flickr page

In the first three cases, the vice presidents succeeded and served the unexpired terms of the presidents who died while in office. This happened during the terms of presidents Manuel Quezon, Manuel Roxas, and Ramon Magsaysay. Their vice presidents, Sergio Osmeña, Elpidio Quirino, and Carlos Garcia, respectively, succeeded them in office.

FORMER PRESIDENT Manuel Roxas | Presidential Museum and Library PH Flickr page

FORMER PRESIDENT Ramon Magsaysay, first from right, consults jeepney drivers in Malacanang | Photo from Presidential Museum and Library PH Flickr page

People power revolts, meanwhile, snatched power away from Ferdinand Marcos and Joseph “Erap” Ejercito Estrada. Marcos’s ouster necessitated the establishment of a provisional constitution and a “revolutionary government” which accorded the president both executive and legislative powers.

FORMER Presidents Ferdinand E. Marcos, second from left, top photo, and Joseph E. Estrada share the same fate. Both were ousted by revolts | Estrada photo taken from Joseph Estrada: The Millennium President by Adrian E. Cristobal | All photos from Presidential Museum and Library PH Flickr page

Corazon C. Aquino came to power as the rightful winner of the snap presidential elections that Marcos called in February 1986.

FORMER PRESIDENT Corazon C. Aquino on the campaign trail during the 1986 snap polls | Photo from Presidential Museum and Library PH Flickr page

Estrada’s term, on the other hand, was continued by his vice president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. He would later claim that he only left his position temporarily but the Supreme Court upheld Arroyo’s ascent to the presidency, adding that Estrada resigned when he left Malacañang and released his statement acknowledging Arroyo’s oath-taking as his successor.

FORMER PRESIDENT Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo | Photo from Presidential Museum and Library PH Flickr page | Photo taken by Marcelino Pascua | OPS-NIB

The 1987 Constitution provides that in case of resignation or removal from office of the president, the vice president shall serve his or her unexpired term. Thus, should President Aquino relinquish his post, before his term ends on June 30, 2016, his constitutional successor should be Vice President Jejomar C. Binay, who is himself facing controversies, too.

According to the Constitution, if there are no president and vice president on account of “death, permanent disability, removal from office, or resignation of both”, the Senate president or, in case of his/her inability, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, shall be acting president until one is elected and qualifies to the position.

President Benigno S. Aquino III offers prayers to the remains of slain Marine Corporal Josen Mias and Sergeant Francis Jeffel Flores during the wake visit at the Fort Bonifacio Naval Station Mortuary in Taguig City on Monday afternoon (March 16, 2015). President Aquino recognized the heroism of the two marines killed in encounters with Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Maguindanao. (Photo by Benhur Arcayan / Malacañang Photo Bureau)

Senate President Franklin Drilon and Speaker Feliciano Belmonte, Jr. currently lead the legislature. Both are members of the president’s political party, the Liberal Party.

In this instance, the Senate president or the House Speaker “need not possess the qualifications prescribed by the Constitution for a President.

And in case of death, permanent disability, or inability of the Senate president or the Speaker, “the Congress is mandated by law to provide for the one who will act as President and the manner he shall be selected until a President or a Vice-President shall have been elected and qualified.” - PCIJ, March 2015

PNoy’s trust and approval ratings dip

March 17, 2015March 17, 2015 Julius Mariveles Leave a comment

But register highest in Mindanao

THE RATINGS of exiting Philippine President Benigno Simeon Aquino III plunged to historic lows since he assumed the presidency in 2010 amid the controversies surrounding the January 25 Mamasapano tragedy, the 2015 Ulat ng Bayan Survey of Pulse Asia revealed.

Aquino’s overall approval rating went down to 38 percentage points in the survey conducted by Pulse Asia from March 1-7, 2015 — a decrease of 21 percentage points from November last year. His trust ratings, meanwhile, plunged to 36 percentage points, or a 20-point drop from November 2014.

This is also the first time that the President has posted “non-majority” national approval and trust ratings in the surveys conducted by the pollster since October 2010, or immediately after the Aquino assumed the presidency. At the time, Aquino’s trust ratings stood at a high of 80 percentage points while his approval rating was at 79.

Filipinos in the National Capital Region gave the president the lowest trust and approval ratings at 24 percent and 26 percent, respectively.

Curiously, in Mindanao where the Mamasapano incident took place, Aquino earned the highest trust and approval ratings, both at 45 percent. In the rest of Luzon, the figures stood at 34 and 36 percent, respectively, while in the Visayas, these were 40 and 41 percent, respectively.

Those belonging to the upper and middle socio-economic classes were the least satisfied with Aquino. Classes ABC gave the president trust and approval ratings of 34 and 35 percent respectively, while those belonging to Class D rated him 34 and 35 percent, respectively.

Those belonging to Class E, the lowest socio-economic class, gave the highest ratings at 42 and 47 percent, respectively.

Breaking down the figures further, Pulse Asia said essentially the same percentage of Filipinos “expressed either appreciation for or were not decided regarding the President’s performance in the past three months (38 percent versus 39 percent) while basically the same percentages either trust him or are ambivalent toward his trustworthiness (36 percent versus 37 percent).”

In a nutshell, around one in four Filipinos is critical of presidential performance (23 percent) and distrusts him (27 percent).

The nationwide survey was based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults aged 18 years old and above. It has a margin of error of plus/minus three percent with a 95 percent confidence level. For Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, the results have a plus/minus six percent margin of error with the same confidence level.

President Benigno S. Aquino III graces the 110th Commencement Exercises of Philippine Military Academy (PMA) Sundalong Isinilang na may Angking Galing at Lakas, Handang Ipaglaban ang Bayan (Sinaglahi) Class of 2015 at the Fajardo Grandstand, Borromeo Field, Fort General Gregorio del Pilar in Baguio City on Sunday (March 15, 2015). The PMA boast of a long and illustrious history of preparing only the best Filipino men and women for military service | Benhur Arcayan-Malacañang Photo Bureau

The president’s survey ratings plunged in the four-month period between November 2014 and March 2015 amid problems being faced by his administration. The Mamasapano encounter between members of the Special Action Force, the Moro Islamic Liberation, and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters dominated the headlines before and during the conduct of the field interviews, Pulse Asia said.

Forty-four members of the SAF, 18 fighters of the MILF, and five civilians were killed during the operation codenamed Exodus, which aimed to capture three suspected terrorists hiding in Mamasapano town.

Issues related to the Mamasapano survey that dominated the headlines in the weeks immediately preceding the conduct of the survey were:

The declaration by Aquino of January 30, 2015 as a National Day of Mourning for the killed SAF members;

The President’s absence during the arrival honors for the 42 of the 44 fallen policemen whose bodies arrived at the Villamor Air Base from Maguindanao;

Aquino’s conferment of the Medalya ng Katapangan upon the 44 slain PNP-SAF policemen during the necrological services held as part of the National Day of Mourning;

The conduct of several investigations to shed light on what really transpired in Mamasapano and who should be held accountable for the death of the 44 policemen;

A proposal for the creation of still another body – an independent truth commission – to conduct a probe into the incident;

Amidst the unresolved questions surrounding the Mamasapano incident, calls for the resignation of President Aquino by several senior bishops belonging to the National Transformation Council (NTC), student groups, and other militant organizations;

The statement by the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) that it is not supportive of such calls even as it favors the creation of a truth commission;

The removal of PNP-SAF Commander Getulio Napeñas from his post on January 27, 2015 following the death of 44 of his men during the Mamasapano encounter;

The resignation of PNP Director General Alan Purisima on February 5, 2015 amidst reports that he was involved in the decision-making process related to the police operation in Mamasapano whilst under preventive suspension resulting from a graft and corruption charge;

Reports that disgruntled members of the country’s armed forces are planning to stage a coup against President Aquino in the aftermath of the Mamasapano incident and expressions of loyalty to the Philippine government by high ranking military and police officers who say that they still have to verify such reports; and

Military operations conducted toward the end of February 2015 by the AFP against the BIFF and the Abu Sayyaf in certain areas of Mindanao reportedly to reduce these groups’ ability to carry out violent attacks against civilians. The military offensive has resulted in casualties on both sides as well as the evacuation of thousands of civilians.

Among the other issues hogging the headlines in the weeks preceding the survey were: the retirement of the chairman and two commissioners of the Commission on Elections; the retirement of the chairperson of the Commission on Audit; the acquittal of former Comelec Chairman Benamin Abalos in the electoral sabotage case filed against him in connection with alleged electoral fraud in North Cotabato during the May 2007 polls; the Supreme Court’s reaffirmation of its decision on the Disbursement Acceleration Program as unconstitutional; the freeze order of the assets of Senators Jinggoy Estrada and Ramon Revilla, Jr.; and the Senate hearings on the allegations of corruption against Vice President Jejomar Binay.