Category: Foreign Affairs

Aquino living up to the role of U.S. dummy

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Aquino in 2012 Asean and dialogue partners summit in Cambodia


In a United States-written script, President Aquino performed his role very well as the American dummy in Southeast Asia at the 21st Asean summit in Cambodia.

In a speech before leaders belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the group’s dialogue partners that included the United States and China, Aquino urged the U.S. to be involved in the South China Sea dispute.

Parts of the speech:“It is especially vital to have the world’s largest national economy involved in the discussions considering the interconnectedness of our current milieu…

“Each one of our nations has a stake in the stability of Southeast Asia. The United States understands this and, for this reason, has chosen to work with us to ensure the peace and continuous advancement of our region.”

The Inquirer reported that Aquino said the US presence at the Asean summits “adds a special dimension to our regional discussions particularly on issues that have far-reaching political and economic implications.”

“Our region is very diverse and its harmony can easily be disrupted by sheer political, military, or economic might. Imbalance, as we know, may lead to instability…While we are all aware that the US does not take sides in disputes, they do have a strategic stake in the freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce, and the maintenance of peace and stability in the South China Sea.

“We continue to support the further inclusion of economies active in the region in these discussions. They serve to expand our capacities as an organization and they will certainly accelerate our progress in the pursuit of shared prosperity for the region.”

On the surface, he sounded like a small boy running to a bigger guy for help after an encounter with a neighborhood bully.

Philippine relations with China has deteriorated after a faceoff last April at Panatag shoal, also known as Scarborough Shoal, 124 nautical miles off Zambales in Central Luzon.

The Philippines also has a conflicting claim with China over islands in the Spratlys in South China Sea, which China claims wholly as its territory. Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan also claim part of South China Sea. The Philippines renamed the area as West Philippine Sea.

But a closer observation of Aquino’s statements and those coming from American officials reveal the former following a script. The close collaboration with the U.S. in the Asean summit became obvious with the a senior aide to the president, Ben Rhodes, saying Obama was set to defy Beijing’s protests over the “internationalization” of the South China and will use a summit to raise concerns over area which is an important maritime passage, vital to global trade and security.

Rhodes said Obama planned to pressure China on the highly sensitive issue of a code of conduct that would govern behavior in the contested waters.”We… want to see continued momentum on the diplomatic process. ASEAN needs to talk to China about a code of conduct.”

A CNN report on the meeting of Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, however said, the newly-re-elected American president “was keen to put the focus on trade issues, and ignored questions on a bitter maritime dispute that overshadowed discussions on the first day of the summit on Monday.

Obama merely told Wen that China and the U.S. should “work to establish clear rules of the road internationally for trade and investment which can increase prosperity and global growth.”

The CNN report quoted Alan Dupont, a professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia, who said that the while U.S. was happy to push China to the table, it was unlikely to step directly into trying to resolve the issue.

“The U.S. is not a claimant in the South China Sea dispute but it does have an interest in maintaining freedom of navigation.”

Obama is being wise, letting the immature Aquino make the noise and thus, courting the ire of the Chinese while he plays the role of regional stabilizer.

The little boy will soon find out the bigger guy will not cross the path of the neighborhood bully to protect him. He will have to learn to protect himself.

Veteran diplomat Lauro Baja on the ‘New China’

Ellen Leave a comment

Xi Jinping

The changing of the guards in China is ongoing at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China which started yesterday.

Chinese President Hu Jintao will turn over leadership to Vice President Xi Jinping.

One of the Philippines’ seasoned diplomats, Lauro Baja, formerly the country’s permanent representative to the United Nations talked to some members of media and shared his thoughts on how the Philippines should deal with the “new China.”

Baja, who also served as Foreign Affairs undersecretary for policy, thinks despite the change in leadership, China “will not be able to veer away too much from what is existing now. “

But, he said, “there is now a new dynamic in China, the news is now more vocal, the social media is more vocal and there is a greater degree of nationalism among people in the streets. As a matter of fact they now think and they may be rightly so that they are now the center of the world. “

That reality, he said, must be taken into account by the Philippine policy makers in dealing with China now.

Given the overlapping territorial claims on China and the Philippines, Baja said “we must find ways to either resume dialogue or initiate dialogue on other approaches” because military action is not an option. “ In our dispute or claim, we have no military option and I don’t think parties are thinking of the military option.”

Lauro Baja

Baja laments the “fixation on developing a code of conduct in the South China Sea as an upgrade of the Declaration of the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea.”

“We are making the same objections as we did in the declaration and it is unrealistic to expect that a code could be concluded in the immediate future,” he said.

He pointed out that China has not budged from its view that there should not be an enforcement provision in case of violation and a dispute mechanism.

So how do we go from there?

Baja is not optimistic that the 10-member Association of Southeast Nations,which will have a summit meeting in Cambodia on Nov. 18- 20, would be able to conclude an ASEAN Regional Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and allow parties concerned including China to either accede or adhere to the declaration.

“Maybe that would be a creative approach. After all ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation has been acceded to by China so maybe there’s an example for a new innovative creative approach. But in the UNCLOS (United Nations Commission on the Law of the Sea) itself there are opportunities also for cooperative activities,” Baja said.

Despite the recriminations over the Panatag (Scarborough) shoal early this year, Baja believes the Chinese does not really consider the Philippines an enemy nor do we consider China one.

He said,”the only element which put a ‘fly on the ointment’ is the so-called in the PH-China relations is the perceived excessive dependence of the PH on the US and that’s a sore point to them.”

He related a conversation with recent Chinese visitor Fu Ying, vice minister in China’s foreign ministry who was formerly ambassador to the Philippines.

“ I told Fu Ying, because I know her I was undersecretary of foreign affairs then when she was ambassador here so we could talk frankly. I told her, the trouble with China is you talk to us thru the US why don’t you talk to us directly and we talk to you directly. And she said to me, ‘but you also talk to us thru the US.’

“ So again, that perception must be excised. We cannot deny that we are close to the US we are treaty allies, people-to-people exchanges are substantive but we cannot also deny that geography is immutable, we have a big neighbor to the north who is the second largest economy in the world and with a growing military and a growing international clout in international affairs so the challenge for Philippine diplomacy is to have a nuance approach to the competition, to the rivalry to the so-called boxing match as Pres. Ramos said between China and the US because whether we like it or not the security architecture of the region will be determined to a very large significant factor by the US-China relations.”

Related articles:

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/55590/china-bares-plan-to-be-a-naval-power

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/09/world/asia/hu-jintao-exiting-communist-leader-cautions-china.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Leadership-related events in US and China

Ellen Leave a comment

Obama and Romney in their second presidential debate last Oct 18.

This week, the two most powerful countries on earth are holding top leadership-related events.

Tuesday, Nov. 6 is Election Day in the United States of America.

The US continues to be a major influence to Filipinos, with many of us having relatives there. Media outfits and individuals are monitoring the race, a number of them taking sides.

Reports said the presidential race is tight between Barack Obama, a Democrat who is seeking a second term and Republican candidate Mitt Romney.

China, on Thursday, Nov. 8 will hold its 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in Beijing. Held every five years, the Chinese Embassy in Manila said there’s “a remarkable increase” of overseas journalists applying for accreditation for the event, compared to the number that covered the 17th Congress.

Unlike in the US, where no one can predict for sure whether Obama will continue for another four years in the White House or step down on January 2013, in China it is expected that Xi Jinping, 57, currently the vice president will succeed President Hu Jintao, 68, also referred as “paramount leader.”

Here’s excerpts from the media advisory of the Chinese Embassy :

“The congress is a very important meeting to be held at a critical time when China is building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, and deepening reform and opening up and accelerating the transformation of economic development pattern in difficult areas.

“The congress will hold high the banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics, be guided with the Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thoughts of “Three Represents,” and thoroughly carry out the Scientific Outlook on Development.

“The congress will review the Party’s work over the past five years as well as what the Party has implemented since the 16th CPC National Congress.

“It will summarize the precious experience the Party has gained from the historical process of uniting and leading the people of all ethnic groups to carry on and advance the socialism with Chinese characteristics.

“The congress will thoroughly examine the current international and domestic situation and take into account of the new requirements for the country’s development and new expectations from the people.

“The congress will draw out the guidelines and policies that respond to the call of the times and fulfill the wishes of the people.”

For Filipinos who elect their leaders, almost like the Americans, the Chinese setup is somewhat complicated.

In a democratic setup that we have in the Philippines, there are three co-equal branches of government: the Executive headed by the President whom the people elect directly; Legislative composed of senators and representatives, whom the people also elect; and the Judiciary headed by the Supreme Court Justice appointed by the President but is independent from the two other branches.

Xi Jinping, China’s incoming president

In China, the three levers of power are The Party, The Army and the State.

Here’s a useful primer by Patrick Chovanec , a professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing on China’s Leadership transition:

“The National [Party] Congress (not to be confused with the annual National People’s Congress) has 2000 party delegates. It meets every 5 years and ‘elects’ the Party’s Central Committee of 300 members, but in reality simply ratifies members who have been put in place by the 24-man Politburo.

“The Politburo is in turn governed by the nine members of its Standing Committee. The members of this committee are ranked in order of influence 1-9, and are in essence the beating heart of the Chinese government. At present Hu Jintao occupies the number one slot and Wen Jiabao number three. Their expected replacements, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, come in at six and seven respectively.

“The expectation that Xi Jinping will succeed Hu Jintao seems to come from matters of both precedent and powerful influence. Xi Jinping holds the two posts that Hu himself held before becoming President, or more importantly before becoming the General Secretary of the Party’s Politiburo Central Committee. “

Xi is described by media as “princeling,” the child of a prominent Party official. Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, who represented President Aquino at the Asean-China Expo, met with him in Nanning, China last September.

Wen Jiabao will remain as Premier after he steps down from the Politburo standing committee until taken over by Li Keqiang in March.

It’s important for Filipino officials to monitor closely the leadership transition in the U.S. and China and keep a close watch on new personalities in the power hierarchy.

But there should be no illusion of a major change in their foreign policy attitude towards the Philippines. Whatever party would be in power in the United States, whoever would wield the most power in China, they would all prioritize their national interest in dealing with other countries.

That should also be our policy.