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China takes the offensive

April 18, 2023April 18, 2023 Ellen

It was short and clear. And combative.

In 10 paragraphs, Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian made known last Sunday, April 16, his government’s anger over the decision of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. allowing the United States military to preposition and store defense equipment, supplies and materiel in sites “only a stone’s throw away from Taiwan.”

He warned what China, which boasts of the strongest military in Asia and third in the world, might and can do: “… we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures.”

He laid out to the Marcos government how it could be affected adversely in case armed hostilities erupt in Taiwan, where over 150,000 Filipinos work, and what it should do to help prevent that situation from happening: “The Philippines is advised to unequivocally oppose ’Taiwan independence’ rather than stoking the fire by offering the U.S. access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait if you care genuinely about the 150,000 OFWs.”

Two weeks earlier, when the pre-dominantly Catholic Filipinos were starting their observance of the week-long Holy Week retreat, the government released the location of the additional four EDCA sites: Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan; Camilo Osias Naval Base in Santa Ana, Cagayan; Camp Melchor dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela; and Balabac Island in Palawan.

EDCA stands for Enhanced Cooperation Agreement between the Philippines and the United States signed in 2014 which established “agreed locations” in the country where the United States Armed Forces can have access on a rotational basis.

Under EDCA, “the Philippines authorizes the United States forces, United States contractors and vehicles, vessels and aircraft operated by or for United States forces may conduct the following activities with respect to Agreed Locations: training, transit, support and related activities; refueling of aircraft, bunkering of vessels; temporary maintenance of vehicles, vessels and aircraft; temporary accommodation of personnel; communications; prepositioning of equipment, supplies, materiel; deploying forces and materiel and such other activities as the Parties may agree.”

The four new sites bring to nine the EDCA sites in the country. The five earlier agreed locations are Cesar Basa Air Base in Pampanga, Fort Magsaysay Military Reservation in Nueva Ecija, Lumbia Air Base in Cagayan de Oro, Antonio Bautista Air Base in Puerto Prinsesa and Mactan Benito Ebuen Air Base in Cebu.

The two sites that are driving China up the wall are Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan, which is 590 kilometers to Taiwan, and Camilo Osias Naval Base in Santa Ana, Cagayan, which is 623 km to Taiwan.

The ambassador explained: “Obviously, the U.S. intends to take advantage of the new EDCA sites to interfere in the situation across the Taiwan Strait to serve its geopolitical goals, and advance its anti-China agenda at the expense of peace and development of the Philippines and the region at large. Many Filipino politicians and ordinary Filipino people are questioning whether opening new bases will serve the national interests of the Philippines. ’Why are the new EDCA sites only a stone’s throw away from Taiwan?’ ‘How will the Philippines effectively control the prepositioned weapons in the military bases?’ ‘Why will the Philippines fight for another country through the new EDCA sites?’ These are soul-searching questions of the Philippine people and also doubt by people in China and across the region.”

That’s when he raised the worrisome possibility: “But we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is to guard against external interference and all separatist activities. The Philippines is advised to unequivocally oppose ’Taiwan independence’ rather than stoking the fire by offering the U.S. access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait if you care genuinely about the 150,000 OFWs.”

On April 10, Marcos said he will not allow the EDCA sites to be used in any offensive attack. He added in Filipino, “If no one attacks us, they don’t need to worry because we won’t fight them.”

Taiwan is one of China’s core issues. Since 1949 when the then Mao Tse Tung-led Communist Party of China took over the mainland after more than two decades of civil war and pushed the Chiang Kai shek-led Nationalist Party of China to Taiwan – an island about 100 miles away – the Beijing government has made the One-China Policy a pre-requisite in its relations with other countries.

Under the One-China Policy, which the Philippines, the U.S. and more than 180 countries have adopted, the Beijing-based People’s Republic of China is the legitimate government of China and Taiwan is a province of China.

For many years, the world has seen peace under a delicate situation of “no unification, no independence, and no use of force” policy. In recent years, however, Beijing finds Taiwan under President Tsai Ing-wen leaning more towards independence.
Two years ago, I asked a Chinese journalist about the possibility of an armed confrontation over Taiwan, he said, “Not in our lifetime.”
Last month, I asked him the same question. His answer: “I’m not sure anymore.”

EDCA may have spurred China’s expansion in SCS

January 15, 2016January 15, 2016 Ellen Leave a comment

Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and U.S. Ambassador Phillip Goldberg after signing the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

In their ecstasy over the Supreme Court decision declaring the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement constitutional and need not be ratified by the Senate, government officials are telling the Filipino people that the country is now in a better position to take on China in the territorial conflict in the Spratlys in the South China Sea.

The military’s spokesman even said from where the American troops would be based in the Philippines, it would take a shorter distance to the South China Sea where China has done massive reclamations around the reefs and rocks they occupy.
As if the American troops based in the Philippines would simply and quickly rush to the Spratlys and battle with Chinese Navy if China clash with the Philippine Navy in the disputed waters.

It would be good to refer to the Senate hearing in on EDCA in December 2014 when Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin was compelled to tell the public what EDCA is really about upon incisive questioning by Sen. Miriam Santiago, chairperson of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

In that hearing, Santiago asked Gazmin: “What will the US do if a Chinese ship fires at a Philippine ship in the West Philippine Sea?”

Gazmin answered, “It’s part of the agreement that we can pull the US to join us in the fight.”

If he thought he can get away with that answer which was not exactly truthful, Santiago asked if the U.S. would immediately deploy planes and ships to fire at the Chinese, Gazmin had to admit that the deployment would go “through a process.”

Pressed further how long would the process take, Gazmin had to admit again that “The process takes long.”

Santiago made a realistic conclusion: “By that time, the [Philippine] ship has already sunk.”

The process Gazmin referred to is the provision in the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.”

In the U.S. “Constitutional processes” means the President would have to ask approval from the Congress which could take a lot of debate and time.

American and Filipino soldiers in a joint military exercise.Photo from AFP’s Exercise Balikatan Facebook

Philippine officials continue deluding the public that China would be deterred by the presence of American troops in the Philippines to carry out whatever plans it has to protect its interests when in fact the reality on the ground is the opposite.

If one looks at the timeline of China’s moves related to the South China Sea conflict, it can be said that EDCA hastened or at least was one of the reasons that China expanded in the South China Sea.

Tension in the South China Sea in the last three years remained even after the two-month standoff in Scarborough Shoal over the arrest of Chinese fishermen on April 8, 2012 ended. Two Chinese ships remained in the area giving the Chinese control over the disputed rock 124 nautical miles from the Zambales.

The Scarborough incident triggered the filing by the Philippines of a suit before the United Nations Arbitral Tribunal questioning China’s nine-dash line map in January 2013.

Negotiations for EDCA started in August 2013. The Aquino government agreed to an increased presence of American troops in the country made possible by the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement after U.S military bases were closed in 1992. Before that, in view of the Constitutional ban on permanent presence of foreign troops in the country, the Philippine government from the time of Gloria Arroyo presidency allowed “rotational” presence of U.S. troops in the country. An agreement on PH-US Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement of EDCA was signed on April 26, 2014.

In Dec. 2013, China started reclaiming land in Spratlys. By June 2015, the U.S. Defense Department said China has reclaimed 2,900 acres of land mass transforming the eight rocks and reefs it occupies into islands. China has also constructed installations in the reclaimed islands.

Crew members of the two aircraft that landed in Fiery Cross Reef pose for a souvenir photo.From Xinhua.

Last week, China conducted test flights in Fiery Cross Reef, one of the man-made islands.
Buoyed by the High Court’s decision, Defense Ministry Spokesman Peter Paul Galvez now talks of joint patrol of Philippine and U.S. ships in the disputed waters.

“We are suggesting that we also patrol the area together. There is a need for more collaborative presence in the South China Sea,” Galvez said.

Lawyer Harry Roque, who was one of those who questioned the constitutionality of EDCA before the Supreme Court, asked, “What joint patrol” is Galvez talking. With only one or two ships, the Philippines has no capability to conduct joint patrol with the U.S., Roque said.

What would happen, Roque said, is the Philippines to just provide a front for the U.S. presence in the South China Sea. That would be “subterfuge,” he said.

Roque said joint patrols involving the U.S. under EDCA would only increase tension in the South China Sea.