Why we have to learn the art of listening and discerning

Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. being interviewed by Lizzie Laso of Times Journal and Restry de Quiroz Jr. of DZRH. To Bongbong Marcos’ let is Cookie Micaller of Jiji Press.

In his insightful piece in Time Magazine on the election as president of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the son and namesake of the ousted dictator, scholar Jonathan Ong said: “To fight back, progressive leaders should advance their own counter-narrative and persuasive vision. But first, they must acknowledge their failure to listen.”

I recall my interview with Sen. Kiko Pangilinan, who lost to Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio in the vice-presidential contest in the recently concluded election, a few weeks before the 2019 midterm election.

I asked Pangilinan, who was then the campaign manager of the Liberal Party-led coalition, what lessons have they learned in the 2016 elections when their candidate, investment banker Mar Roxas, was resoundingly trounced by the foul-mouth Davao City mayor Rodrigo Duterte despite their being considered then as the incumbent administration’s ticket.

Pangilinan replied: “We didn’t listen to what the people wanted. We told them what we wanted to do for them. We didn’t ask what they wanted.”
He said that’s what they were doing in the 2019 campaign; they asked the people what they wanted. The interview took place about a month before Election Day.

I thought then, Pagilinan’s reflection made for a good campaign strategy, but a bit too late.

We are not sure how much of what they learned in 2019 was used in the 2022 elections. Whatever it was, it was smothered by the awesome machinery that the Marcoses built for Bongbong’s presidential bid.

It’s a machinery that set a specific goal – to rehabilitate the Marcoses and bring them back to power.

It was a machinery that was crafted after a thorough study of its market audience. And it crafted a narrative that appealed to the people, truth be damned.

Stories glorifying martial law and reports refuting the family’s ill-gotten wealth cases and human rights violations were packaged in catchy, engaging TikTok,YouTube, and Instagram posts and distributed across other platforms — Facebook, Twitter, Viber, WhatsApp, etcetera — reaching millions of viewers.

On May 27, VERA Files fact checked a May 14, 2021 photo collage on Facebook, falsely claiming that the Philippines was Asia’s richest country, ahead of Japan, during the Marcos era.

It was a big lie. The Philippines was neither the richest country in Asia nor “richer” than Japan, Singapore, and South Korea during Marcos’ rule from 1965 to 1986, based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

In the 13 days that VERA Files monitored the post, it gained 22,000 reactions; 4,400 comments; and, 28,000 shares on FB. It won’t be surprising if that erroneous report is still being shared.

Analysts differ on when the Marcoses started their image rehabilitation project. Immediately after they were ousted from Malacañang in February 1986, statements from members of the Marcos family hinted of their desire to return to the country’s seat of power, which they held for more than two decades.

Journalist Tina Luz wrote an article not so long after the 1986 People Power revolution in which she related an incident when she took a cab with Bongbong Marcos in New York City. Luz said the cab driver overhead them talking about the Philippines and butted in: “You are from the Philippines? You did right in kicking out that bastard Marcos.”

Luz said when they got off the cab, the young Marcos said something like: “See the stigma that our family has to deal with? We have to correct that.”

The rehabilitation of the Marcos image took a lot of time but it was well-calculated. First was the family members’ return to the country two years after the dictator’s death on Sept. 28, 1989.

Bongbong Marcos was the first to fly back to the Philippines on Oct. 31, 1991 under the protection of his father’s closest crony, Eduardo “ Danding” Cojuangco Jr. The next day, which was All Soul’s Day, the young Marcos went to Ilocos Norte where he was welcomed warmly and emotionally by Ilocanos, treating him like a prince returning to his kingdom.

The matriarch, Imelda Marcos, followed three days after.

The two tested the political waters by running for the national elections – Imelda Marcos for president in 1992 and Bongbong Marcos for senator in 1995. They both lost. Imelda, who got two million votes, ranked fifth, higher than the much- respected former Senate president Jovito Salonga. With eight million votes, Bongbong was number 16 in the senatorial race.

Their unsuccessful initial political bids, however, showed them the valuable knowledge that they still have considerable following that can be increased if they could whitewash the stigma attached to the Marcos regime.

They worked on that and in the 2010 Elections (won by Benigno Aquino III), Bongbong was seventh in the senatorial lineup. His elder sister, Imee Marcos, was elected senator in 2019.

In 2016, the Marcos machinery, extending to overseas Filipinos and including a robust social media network, was in place. They smartly aimed for the vice presidency, a heartbeat away from the presidency.

A campaign staff in the Marcos vice-presidential campaign said Bongbong’s first choice to partner with was Rodrigo Duterte but the then Davao City mayor dilly-dallied on his decision to seek the presidency. Marcos did not wait and settled with the very sick Miriam Santiago as his presidential candidate.

Duterte disclosed in later interviews that the Marcoses were one of the early supporters of his presidential candidacy.

Marcos’ strong vice-presidential bid concerned Äquino, whose family was the political enemy of the Marcoses. His call for support on local leaders for Robredo resulted in her winning by a slim margin of a little over 260,000 votes, upsetting the Marcoses’ return- to- Malacañang timetable.

The setback, however, jolted the Marcoses into leveling up their disinformation machinery.

Ronald Holmes, assistant professor of Political Science at De La Salle University and president of Pulse Asia Research, wrote in an article in East Asia Forum about the success of the Marcos strategy:

“Bongbong’s victory testifies to an effective rebranding of his persona. The rebranding was actively prosecuted on social media and started with stories in various social media platforms that glorified martial law and refuted narratives about the family’s ill-gotten wealth. The rebranding was abetted by Duterte’s decision to bury Bongbong’s father — the late dictator — in the National Heroes’ Cemetery. This affirmed the imagined heroism of the dead despot, a historical distortion Marcos Sr. peddled in the early 1960s as he prepared to vie for the presidency in 1965.

“Bongbong successfully projected himself as an anti-populist with his oft-repeated message of unity that inspired hope among a public that hankered for a recovery after a debilitating pandemic.”

Imee Marcos credits ‘’the legacy of [her] father “ as the most effective campaign instrumental to her family’s return to the seat of power.
The recent election taught us the importance of listening and discerning. Listen to the many voices, but it is important that we are able to distinguish something as being different from another: to differentiate what is true from false.

This column also appeared in:

Malaya Business Insight
VERA Files

Is Bongbong Marcos peaking too early?

Latest election surveys showed that if elections were held today, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. would be the 17th president of the Republic of the Philippines.

It’s a nightmare in the making for those who have experienced the horrors of martial law and those who know how democracy was distorted and crushed during the Marcos authoritarian regime. Will the 50th year of the declaration of martial law on Sept. 21, 2022 be declared a national holiday by the Philippine president by then, the son and namesake of the man who signed Proclamation 1081 two days prior to its announcement, asked JB Baylon, columnist of Malaya Business Insight and VERA Files.

Pulse Asia’s December 2021 nationwide survey showed Marcos Jr. was the choice of 53% of Filipinos if elections were held now. Other candidates trail behind, with Leni Robredo, the political opposition’s muse, as the choice of 20% of the respondents; Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, 8%; boxing legend and Sen. Manny Pacquiao, 8%; and, Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, 6%.

Never has a candidate in the post-1986 people power revolution elections reached that high number consistently in pre-election surveys. Not even Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, who was catapulted into the 2010 presidential race by the massive public sympathy over his mother’s death a few months earlier. He led in all the poll surveys at 40-plus percent, never reaching 50%.

A favorite elections poll story is the come-from-behind feat of then-mayor of Davao City, Rodrigo Duterte, who was No. 4 among presidential aspirants five months before D-Day. The SWS December 2009 survey had then-vice president Jejomar Binay and Sen. Grace Poe preferred by 26% of the respondents, followed by Liberal Party standard bearer Manuel “Mar” Roxas with 22%. Duterte had 20% support and then-senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago, 4%.

Duterte’s national popularity manifested only in the April 2015 surveys. Pulse Asia’s polling sponsored by broadcast giant ABS-CBN two weeks before the May 9, 2016 elections had Duterte on top with 33%. He went on to win the elections with 16,601,997 (39.2% of votes cast).
The vice-presidential race was also a come-from-behind story with Robredo winning over Marcos Jr. by 263, 473 votes.

The come-from-behind stories are reminders that many things can happen between now and May 9, 2022. Can Bongbong Marcos continue expanding his numbers and convert them successfully to actual votes come Election Day? Or has he peaked this early and go downhill from now?
Bongbong Marcos’ advisers, having their bitter lesson in the 2016 elections experience, may be doing everything to make sure that their candidate maintains the lead.

There are calls for the opposition to unite behind Robredo against Marcos Jr. Maybe because his running mate is President Duterte’s daughter, Bongbong is identified with the current administration and his victory would be a continuation of Duterte’s policies: pro-China, low on human rights, etc.

Duterte’s badmouthing of Bongbong Marcos didn’t seem to have affected the latter’s popularity. This confirms two things: Duterte’s lame duck status (who gives importance to someone who will be out of power in a few months?) and that more than 50% of Duterte’s social media warriors, credited for his 2016 election domination, belongs to the Marcos online army.

It is doubtful, however, if Moreno, Pacquiao and Lacson would withdraw from the race. And granting they would, it is doubtful if the votes would go to Robredo, especially Moreno’s and Pacquiao’s supporters. They could even be won over by Marcos Jr.

This is one situation where Robredo’s strategists should think of the divide and conquer strategy -encourage Pacquiao to stay in the race to deprive the Bongbong-Sara full dominance of Mindanao. Marcos has the edge in Metro Manila over other candidates with 61% (Pulse Asia survey). If Moreno withdraws, his 17% might even go to Marcos.

The next surveys should be interesting. Leni’s graph has been a steady upward climb. Bongbong is clearly on top now. Where does he go from there?

Marcos is INC’s choice for VP, undecided yet for president

Bongbong Marcos with LP Cagayan De Oro Rep. Klarex Uy in a Marcos campaign caravan Friday last week. Photo from Marcos media

Bongbong Marcos with LP Cagayan De Oro Rep. Klarex Uy in a Marcos campaign caravan Friday last week. Photo from Marcos media

A member of the influential Iglesia ni Cristo said the church leadership has called vice presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr, to tell him that he is their choice for the number two position for the May 9 elections.

“Pinatawag siya (he was asked to come),” the source said.

That is not surprising because the Marcos family has close ties with the Manalo family (The late Felix Manalo founded the INC) since the powerful days of the Marcoses in the 1960’s. In all the elections where Ferdinand Marcos was a candidate, the INC supported him.

In fact in the 1986 snap election, when the INC membership was deeply divided between the beleaguered Marcos and the popular Corazon Aquino, Eduardo Manalo, then the executive minister of the church, stuck with Marcos.

The decision to go for Bongbong Marcos was not difficult for the INC leadership because aside from the family friendship, Marcos is leading the vice presidential race. Winnability is a major factor in the decision of the INC who to endorse.

In a close contest, which is what the May 9 elections is turning out to be, the INC vote is crucial.

Social Weather Stations’ Mahar Mangahas, in his column in the Inquirer September last year, estimates the voting strength of the INC this election to be 1.7 million. Two of the past presidents edged out their respective closest rivals with less number of votes than that. In the 1992 elections, the difference between Fidel Ramos’ votes and that of Miriam Santiago (who were both not endorsed by the INC) was only 874,345. In the fraud-tainted elections of 2004, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (endorsed by the INC) was able to hold on to her un-elected presidency with 1.1 million votes over what was obtained by Fernando Poe, Jr., father of Grace Poe, who is now trying to regain the lead from frontrunner Rodrigo Duterte with only 10 days left to Election Day.

Mangahas said: ..” the proportionate strength of INC voters was about four and one-fourth percent of the electorate in 2010. My guess is that it will be the same in 2016. Assuming population growth of 2 percent per year, a number of 1.5 million votes in May 2010 would become 1.7 million votes by May 2016. This does not allow for either conversions to INC or withdrawals from INC. So I think that the claim of 2.0 million INC votes for 2016 is an overstatement.

Rodrigo Duterte with Alan Cayetano flag waving crowd in Negros Oriental. Photo from Duterte-Cayetano media.

Rodrigo Duterte with Alan Cayetano flag waving crowd in Negros Oriental. Photo from Duterte-Cayetano media.

How solid is the INC vote?

In 2010, Mangahas said, “In the presidential election, according to the exit poll, Catholics went 43.4 percent for Noynoy Aquino and 28.2 percent for Erap Estrada, whereas INCs went 77.1 percent for Aquino and 12.0 percent for Estrada. The 77 percent is the extent of unity of the INC vote—not 100 percent, but quite a lot.”

The source said the INC has not yet decided who to endorse for president but in the consultation with grassroots members, the choice was Duterte-Marcos.

He said the consultation process goes up to district level, to the ecclesiastical district, to regional, up to the 100-man council composed of senior ministers.

The final decision will be made by the 24-man Sanggunian headed by Executive Minister Eduardo Manalo.

The source said the two of the major considerations in the INC’s decision-making are, “Has this candidate done anything detrimental to the INC? Can the INC depend on this candidate to help the church?”

Winnability is also major consideration in the INC leadership decision.

Another source said the INC used to be not inclined towards a woman president. It, however, endorsed Arroyo when the FPJ and Panfilo Lacson then failed to have a united opposition.

Grace Poe in Mindoro. Photo from Poe Media.

Grace Poe in Mindoro. Photo from Poe Media.

So Grace Poe still has a good chance to get the endorsement, the source said depending on how close she could narrow the gap between her and Duterte. There is also still the factor that the INC would like to make up for not endorsing FPJ in 2004, he said.

The INC sample ballot is released at the end of the Saturday worship before the elections. That would be on May 7.

What happens if winner in May elections is disqualified?

Of the eight presidential candidates that the Commission on Elections approved to be listed in the ballots for the May 9, 2016 elections, two are facing disqualification cases: Grace Poe and Rodrigo Duterte.

Grace Poe and Escudero oblige a selfie with student in Cebu.

Grace Poe and Escudero oblige a selfie with student in Cebu.

The eight names that Comelec said would be in the ballots are: Jojo Binay of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA); Miriam Defensor Santiago of the People’s Reform Party (PRP); Rody Duterte of Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban); Mel Mendoza of Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP); Grace Poe, independent;Mar Roxas of Daang Matuwid Liberal Party (LP); Roy Señeres of Partido ng Mangagawa at Magsasaka Workers (WPPPMM); and Dante Valencia,independent.

Printing of the ballots will start on Feb. 1 although Senate President Franklin Drilon, an LP stalwart, is asking the poll body to delay it and wait for the resolution of the disqualification cases being heard by the Supreme Court.

Rodrigo Duterte

Rodrigo Duterte

The disqualification cases against Poe allege that she is not a natural-born Filipino citizen because, being a foundling, her parents are unknown and that she lacks the required Philippine residency of 10 years before the May 9 elections.

Duterte’s disqualification case centers on the validity of his substitution,Martin Diño, who withdrew his confused candidacy (he wanted to file a certificate of candidacy for president but the form that he used was for mayor of Pasay City) before the Comelec declared him a nuisance candidate.

Comelec is reported to be cool to Drilon’s request to wait for the SC decision before printing the ballots.
Now, what happens if the winner in the May 9 polls is the one facing disqualification cases and the High Court decided that he or she is not qualified?

Take the case of Poe. What happens if Poe wins and the Supreme Court decides that she is not qualified to run for president?
Lawyer Harry Roque, who is aiming for a seat in the House of Representative through the partylist group, Kabayan, said the crucial factor is proclamation.

Bongbong Marcos in Pasay City Jan. 24, 2016

Bongbong Marcos in Pasay City Jan. 24, 2016

If the Supreme Court decided before Poe is proclaimed that she is not qualified to become president, the candidate with the second highest number of votes will be proclaimed president. If Poe is number one and Binay is number two, Binay becomes president. If Duterte is number two, then it’s Duterte who will be president. If it’s Roxas, then Roxas will realize his dream of becoming president.

Now, if Poe has already been proclaimed winner of the 2016 elections, the cases against her becomes the jurisdiction of the Presidential Electoral Tribunal composed of all the Supreme Court justices.

No problem if PET declared her qualified. She goes on with her presidency.

But if the PET declared her disqualified, the elected and proclaimed vice- president becomes president.

In the latest survey of the Social Weather Stations, Poe’s running mate, Chiz Escudero, is leading the vice-presidential race but Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., running mate of Santiago, is fast catching up.

A Marcos presidency in 2016 is not totally out of the picture.

This is a very interesting elections.

Bongbong Marcos biggest gainer after COC filing

Bongbong Marcos at the Vice mayors league conference

Bongbong Marcos at the Vice mayors league conference

Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. is the biggest gainer among those who filed their certificates of candidacy last week, placing second in the vice-presidential race that has always been dominated by Chiz Escudero, running mate of presidential candidate Grace Poe, initial results of the latest survey by the Magdalo group showed.

The survey, according to a Magdalo source, conducted right after the Commission on Elections closed the filing of certificates of candidacies for the 2016 elections last Oct 16, also showed Poe increasing her lead over her rivals in the presidential race with Jojo Binay of United Nationalist Alliance still running second.

The surge in popularity of Liberal Party’s candidate Mar Roxas after the endorsement of President Aquino and his declaration to run for the presidency in 2016 seem to have ended. His numbers have remained the same and have not been boosted by having the much-admired Leni Robredo as his running mate.

The last survey by SWS and Pulse Asia showing Roxas getting close to frontrunner Poe was conducted before the latter declared her candidacy last Sept. 16.

LP Presidential candidate Mar Roxas and vice-presidential candidate Leni Robredo.

LP Presidential candidate Mar Roxas and vice-presidential candidate Leni Robredo.

Robredo, who is a newcomer in the race earned some points. She is still in the bottom list with UNA vice presidential bet Gringo Honasan, but her numbers are going up. Unlike other vice presidential bets like Escudero, Antonio Trillanes IV, and Alan Cayetano, whose numbers are going down.

Escudero still lead the VP race with Marcos in second place, followed by Trillanes and Cayetano, Honasan and Robredo.
The Magdalo source said the survey is still incomplete as they have not completed the interviews in Northern Luzon hit badly by typhoon Lando and vote-rich Cebu.

The source said results from Panay provinces (Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo) showed Miriam Defensor-Santiago eating up on some of Roxas’potential votes.

Santiago is from Iloilo and Roxas is from Capiz.

Chiz Escudero and Grace Poe

Chiz Escudero and Grace Poe

In Facebook, artist Rock Drilon posted an open letter to fellow Ilonggos not to vote for Santiago.

A portion of his letter read: “A vote for Miriam Santiago is one less vote for Mar Roxas. Yes our very own Mar Roxas who is one true Ilonggo and the Mar Roxas who has quietly and consistently done so much for country and the Ilonggo region…

“My friend, a vote for Miriam Santiago is not only one less vote for Mar Roxas, it is also a vote for the ultimate return of the Marcoses and the Tropang Plunderers whether or not you vote for Bongbong. Worse, your vote for Miriam Santiago is a vote for a traitor to our country and an even bigger traitor to the Ilonggo region.”

The Magdalo source also said The Magdalo source also said the decision Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte not to run for president seem to have benefitted Poe more than other presidential candidates.

Aside from Poe, Roxas, Binay and Santiago, the Magdalo survey also included in the list Roy Señeres and Ausuto Syjuco, Jr who have filed their COC for president.

The Magdalo group has been conducting surveys since the first senatorial run of its leader, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, in 2007. The survey is designed and supervised by Trillanes’ chief-of-staff , Rolando “Oyie” Averilla.