Bongbong Marcos | Prepys' Homepage

The looming arrest of Duterte and the 2025 elections

June 3, 2024June 3, 2024 Ellen

The main character and three of the supporting cast in the ICC trial of Duterte’s deadly war on drugs.

The looming issuance of arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for former president Rodrigo Duterte and his accomplices in his deadly war on drugs is expected to impact tremendously in the 2025 midterm and the 2028 presidential elections.
Former senator Antonio Trillanes IV, who was the first to bring Duterte’s crimes to the ICC way back in 2017, said the warrants of arrest could be served later this month or early July.

He said, according to his sources privy to the workings of the ICC, the serving of the arrest warrants will be done by batch. The former president will be the first one to be served.

The second batch would most likely include Vice President Sara Duterte and Sens. Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go.

The third batch would likely be the police officials who led in the implementation of Duterte’s war on drugs that claimed the lives of some 30,000. (Government figures put those who were killed during police operations at 6,000.)

There were rumors last year about a possible cooperation of former PNP chief Oscar Albayalde with the ICC, but it turned out to be false.

Duterte and those involved in the war on drugs are subject of an investigation for crimes against humanity in the Philippines covering the period from Nov. 1, 2011 (when he was Davao City mayor) to March 16, 2019 (when the Philippines withdrew from the ICC).

Trillanes said the ICC investigators have completed their collection of evidence and are now set to issue warrants of arrest to ensure the participation of the accused in the trial.

Duterte has said several times that he will not submit to the ICC’s jurisdiction, ignorantly describing the international court as composed of “white people.”

His strategy for evading the inevitable serving of an arrest warrant has become pathetic, even laughable. In the beginning, he tried to be useful to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., with his loyalists Bong Go and Sen. Alan Cayetano suggesting that he be appointed special envoy to China, given his closeness to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

When that didn’t work, he resorted to putting pressure on Marcos using the objectionable Charter change issue. The public knows better. Charter change is a legitimate issue but Duterte, having advocated that previously, is not a credible rallying figure. This is best shown by the dwindling attendance in his rallies. Also, the prospect of having Sara Duterte — with her unexplained P125 million confidential fund and dismal performance as Education secretary — as president if Marcos is toppled before 2028 scares concerned citizens.

Dela Rosa is doing his own thing with his senseless investigation of the leak by the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency of the president’s alleged drug use as exposed by Duterte.

In what is seen by many as a distraction to Duterte’s accountability in the bloody drug war, his son, Paolo, who is Davao City representative, has filed a resolution seeking a congressional investigation into the alleged extrajudicial killings in the country for the last 25 years.

Marcos has, so far, dangled the ICC sword, effectively confusing not only Duterte and his allies but also the public. The question on everybody’s mind: Will Marcos allow the arrest of Duterte and his accomplices by the ICC?

Trillanes said that scenario might not happen because he believes Duterte will flee to China for sanctuary. Remember, in August last year Duterte met with Xi in Beijing when he thought a warrant of arrest would be issued with the decision of the ICC to reject the Philippine government’s appeal to stop the investigation.

How about Sara? And Dela Rosa and Go, who are due for reelection in the 2025 elections?

Will the arrest, if it happens, gain them sympathy or lead to their political oblivion?

Abangan.

China takes the offensive

April 18, 2023April 18, 2023 Ellen

It was short and clear. And combative.

In 10 paragraphs, Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian made known last Sunday, April 16, his government’s anger over the decision of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. allowing the United States military to preposition and store defense equipment, supplies and materiel in sites “only a stone’s throw away from Taiwan.”

He warned what China, which boasts of the strongest military in Asia and third in the world, might and can do: “… we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures.”

He laid out to the Marcos government how it could be affected adversely in case armed hostilities erupt in Taiwan, where over 150,000 Filipinos work, and what it should do to help prevent that situation from happening: “The Philippines is advised to unequivocally oppose ’Taiwan independence’ rather than stoking the fire by offering the U.S. access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait if you care genuinely about the 150,000 OFWs.”

Two weeks earlier, when the pre-dominantly Catholic Filipinos were starting their observance of the week-long Holy Week retreat, the government released the location of the additional four EDCA sites: Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan; Camilo Osias Naval Base in Santa Ana, Cagayan; Camp Melchor dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela; and Balabac Island in Palawan.

EDCA stands for Enhanced Cooperation Agreement between the Philippines and the United States signed in 2014 which established “agreed locations” in the country where the United States Armed Forces can have access on a rotational basis.

Under EDCA, “the Philippines authorizes the United States forces, United States contractors and vehicles, vessels and aircraft operated by or for United States forces may conduct the following activities with respect to Agreed Locations: training, transit, support and related activities; refueling of aircraft, bunkering of vessels; temporary maintenance of vehicles, vessels and aircraft; temporary accommodation of personnel; communications; prepositioning of equipment, supplies, materiel; deploying forces and materiel and such other activities as the Parties may agree.”

The four new sites bring to nine the EDCA sites in the country. The five earlier agreed locations are Cesar Basa Air Base in Pampanga, Fort Magsaysay Military Reservation in Nueva Ecija, Lumbia Air Base in Cagayan de Oro, Antonio Bautista Air Base in Puerto Prinsesa and Mactan Benito Ebuen Air Base in Cebu.

The two sites that are driving China up the wall are Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan, which is 590 kilometers to Taiwan, and Camilo Osias Naval Base in Santa Ana, Cagayan, which is 623 km to Taiwan.

The ambassador explained: “Obviously, the U.S. intends to take advantage of the new EDCA sites to interfere in the situation across the Taiwan Strait to serve its geopolitical goals, and advance its anti-China agenda at the expense of peace and development of the Philippines and the region at large. Many Filipino politicians and ordinary Filipino people are questioning whether opening new bases will serve the national interests of the Philippines. ’Why are the new EDCA sites only a stone’s throw away from Taiwan?’ ‘How will the Philippines effectively control the prepositioned weapons in the military bases?’ ‘Why will the Philippines fight for another country through the new EDCA sites?’ These are soul-searching questions of the Philippine people and also doubt by people in China and across the region.”

That’s when he raised the worrisome possibility: “But we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures. This is to guard against external interference and all separatist activities. The Philippines is advised to unequivocally oppose ’Taiwan independence’ rather than stoking the fire by offering the U.S. access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait if you care genuinely about the 150,000 OFWs.”

On April 10, Marcos said he will not allow the EDCA sites to be used in any offensive attack. He added in Filipino, “If no one attacks us, they don’t need to worry because we won’t fight them.”

Taiwan is one of China’s core issues. Since 1949 when the then Mao Tse Tung-led Communist Party of China took over the mainland after more than two decades of civil war and pushed the Chiang Kai shek-led Nationalist Party of China to Taiwan – an island about 100 miles away – the Beijing government has made the One-China Policy a pre-requisite in its relations with other countries.

Under the One-China Policy, which the Philippines, the U.S. and more than 180 countries have adopted, the Beijing-based People’s Republic of China is the legitimate government of China and Taiwan is a province of China.

For many years, the world has seen peace under a delicate situation of “no unification, no independence, and no use of force” policy. In recent years, however, Beijing finds Taiwan under President Tsai Ing-wen leaning more towards independence.
Two years ago, I asked a Chinese journalist about the possibility of an armed confrontation over Taiwan, he said, “Not in our lifetime.”
Last month, I asked him the same question. His answer: “I’m not sure anymore.”

Marcos’ PH roadshow and the ICC probe

February 1, 2023February 1, 2023 Ellen

If you listen closely to Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Remulla’s strident reaction to the decision of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to resume the investigation into the killings related to Duterte’s war on drugs, he didn’t completely rule out allowing the ICC to come into the country.

“Definitely I do not welcome this move of theirs and I will not welcome them in the Philippines unless they make it clear that they will respect us in this regard,” he said in a press conference.

He added: “I will not stand for any of these antics that will question our status as a sovereign country. We will not accept that.”

Remulla knows his international law. He knows that a state’s sovereignty – the supreme right of the state to command obedience within its territory – allows it to enter into treaties. We exercised our sovereign right when we signed the Rome Statute, which established the ICC, on Dec. 28, 2000 and ratified it by the Senate on Aug. 30, 2011. Our accession to the treaty took effect on Nov. 1, 2011.
We knew the provisions in the treaty.

The Philippines’ withdrawal from the ICC initiated by former president Rodrigo Duterte took effect on March 17, 2019.

We are sure Remulla is aware of Article 127, paragraph 2 of the Rome Statute which states that a country’s withdrawal “”shall not affect any cooperation with the Court in connection with criminal investigations and proceedings in relation to which the withdrawing State had a duty to cooperate and which were commenced prior to the date on which the withdrawal became effective, nor shall it prejudice in any way the continued consideration of any matter which was already under consideration by the Court prior to the date on which the withdrawal became effective.”

Last Jan. 26, ICC’s Pre-trial Chamber I (Court) granted Prosecutor Karim Ahmad Khan’s request to resume investigation in connection with the charge of crimes against humanity arising from the killings that happened during a specific period in Duterte’s war on drugs.

It is understandable that Remulla would be offended by the ICC’s decision and the reason that was given: it doesn’t believe the Philippine government is “undertaking relevant investigations that would warrant a deferral of the Court’s investigations on the basis of the complementarity principle.”

It means that the ICC believes that the Philippine government is “unable or unwilling” to prosecute those responsible for the killings, the estimate of which varies from the government’s number of 6,000 to the human rights groups’ more than 20,000.

In their insistence that the country’s judicial system is functioning and ICC’s probe is unwelcome, Remulla’s DOJ as well as during the term of Menardo Guevarra (now solicitor general) points to convictions of policemen involved in the 2017 killings of teenagers Kian de los Santos, Carl Arnaiz and Reynaldo de Guzman.

The ICC, however, is not easily impressed by the “deliberate focus of proceedings on low-level or marginal perpetrators.” It wants to make sure that national investigations or prosecutions focused “on those most responsible for the most serious crimes committed.”

The DOJ never investigated Duterte and the chief implementor of his bloody war-on-drugs, now Sen. Ronald Dela Rosa.

It is noted that Remulla added a conditionality in his public statement on not welcoming the ICC investigators: “… unless they make it clear that they will respect us in this regard.”

There is no reason for Remulla to be worried about it. Since the ICC does not have its own police force, it relies on the cooperation of States and international organizations to arrest and surrender the persons they are investigating.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has not said anything about the latest development from the ICC. During the election campaign, he said that he would only allow ICC probers to come in as tourists.

Many things have changed since then. He is now president, made possible by an alliance with Sarah Duterte, the former president’s daughter.

In the seven months of his presidency, he has been working hard in selling the country as a stable and dynamic investment area. He has impressed the international community as a leader far decent from his predecessor.

In his speech at the 77th United Nations General Assembly last year, he declared: “We need to reaffirm the wisdom of the founders of our United Nations. This means transcending our differences and committing to ending war, upholding justice, respecting human rights, and maintaining international peace and security.”

Surely, he won’t undo all those gains by not allowing the ICC to investigate what has been an extremely traumatic experience for tens and thousands of Filipinos.