Binay in a freefall

Obviously, Vice President Jejomar Binay’s early campaigning was not enough to offset the negative impact of the Senate Blue Ribbon subcommittee investigation which has exposed his alleged mindboggling corruption operations in Makati City.

His scores in Pulse Asia surveys on presidential preference, performance and trust ratings are in a freefall.

In the survey conducted November 14 to 20 Binay’s rating dropped by 21 percentage points (from 66 percent in September to only 45 percent in November).

His trust rating also took a steep decline – 20 percentage points, from 64 percent in September to 44 percent in November.

On presidential preference, he started from a high of 41 per cent in June-July 2014 survey, he dropped to 31 per cent in last September’s poll.

Last month Pulse Asia asked 1,200 adults all over the country who they would vote for president of the 14 names in the list if elections were held today. Binay was down to 26 per cent.

It should be stressed that at 26 per cent, the Vice President is still the leading presidential hopeful. (Sen. Grace Poe is second with 18 percent followed by Sen.Miriam Santiago with 12 percent, and Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada with 10 percent. Sen. Francis Escudero is if fifth with seven percent and Interior Secretary Mar Roxas is sixth with six per cent.)

It is 17 months away to the 2016 election. Binay sympathizers say there is still a lot of time for the people to forget all the corruption allegations and images of unexplained wealth like the Batangas Hacienda.
That is, if Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV are through with him.

The issues raised in the Senate hearings have taken a life of their own: More information on his dark dealings and connections are being fed to media. The Bureau of Internal Revenue is following tips that were brought out in the Senate investigation. Same thing with the Office of the Ombudsman.

For this Christmas season and in January, when the people would be pre-occupied with the visit of Pope Francis, Binay would have a respite. After that, the battle will continue.

It’s not only the Vice President. His wife, former Makati Mayor Elenita Binay, would be busy with her own graft cases. Of course, she would have no problem with posting bail but still, it’s stressful.

More plunder charges are expected to be filed against the vice president. He has to fend that off because plunder is unbailable. He can’t afford to be in detention during the campaign. That situation may turn him into a martyr but that would cramp his campaign.

Binay’s camp say that the Vice President cannot be sued invoking the Constitutional provision that “There shall be a Vice-President who shall have the same qualifications and term of office and be elected with, and in the same manner, as the President. He may be removed from office in the same manner as the President.”

One school of thought is that, since the President is immune from suit while in office and can only be removed by impeachment, the same applies to the Vice President.

There are other lawyers who disagree.

The question is expected to be brought before the Supreme Court. Until the issue is resolved, potential contributors will hold back and wait for clearer signals. That would adversely affect Binay’s campaign.

Further decline in voters preference would be extremely detrimental to Binay’s presidential ambition.